Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42
000
FXUS63 KSGF 250545
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1245 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Elevated to significant fire danger into the early evening.
  Red flag warning continues in parts of central Missouri until
  7 pm.

- Wind advisory from 7 pm this evening until 1 pm Monday for the
  entire CWA.  Wind gusts up to 45 mph possible.

- Widespread showers and a few thunderstorms this evening
  through Monday evening. Highest rainfall amounts east of
  Highway 65 with localized totals up to 2-3" possible. This
  amount of rain will cause a few low water crossings to flood.

- Much cooler temperatures Tuesday through Thursday morning
  with a hard freeze possible Tuesday night into Wednesday
  morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 220 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

Synoptic overview and current conditions: Water vapor imagery
and upper analysis show a large scale upper trough over the
Rockies with a broad area of upper divergence ahead of the
trough from the southern and central plains into the mid
Mississippi valley. An area of showers and thunderstorms has
developed earlier today and continues from western Oklahoma into
eastern Kansas and northwest Missouri. Low levels still pretty
dry over our CWA with mainly mid level cloud cover. Temperatures
were in the mid 50s to mid 60s with dew points in the mid 20s to
low 30s. This is giving humidity levels in the 20s and 30s
across the area. We do have gusty winds over the area with some
gusts up to 35 mph so far.

Red flag warning and Wind Advisory: A red flag warning is in effect until
7 pm for some central Missouri counties for low humidity levels
dipping into the teens to low 20s and wind gusts over 30 mph
possible. While humidity levels will start to recover tonight
with rain moving into the area, the winds will start to pick up
as a strong low pressure system begins to shift eastward. A
strong low level jet of 40 to 55 kts will set up tonight.
Surface wind gusts will pick up tonight and continue through
midday Monday with some gusts up to 45 mph. The wind advisory
goes from 7 pm this evening until 1 pm Monday.

Showers and Thunderstorms: The strong low level southerly flow
will continue to draw Gulf moisture northward into the area.
Upper level divergence will continue over the area as the upper
trough shifts further east into the plains tonight and we should
see showers and maybe a few embedded thunderstorms move into the
area this evening and continue overnight. PW values should rise
over 1" late tonight into Monday with this moisture axis
shifting east across the CWA. We could see some rainfall amounts
of 2 to 3 inches over parts of the eastern Ozarks with lesser
amounts to the west. This may cause some river rises and some
localized low lying areas to flood, with the best chances of
this over the eastern Ozarks. Instability looks to be pretty low
so our risk of any severe storms is pretty low. It does increase
instability a bit ahead of the front on Monday evening and some
CAMS area developing a bit of convection for a few hours during
the evening behind the main area of rain.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 220 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

Cold temperatures Tuesday into Thursday morning: Cold air will
push into the area behind the cold front and low pressure system
late Monday night into Tuesday. Temperatures Monday night should
dip into the low 30s in the northwest CWA to the low 40s in the
far southeast with highs from the mid 40s to mid 50s on Tuesday.
A hard freeze is then expected on Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning as a Canadian air mass moves into the area from the
northwest. Lows in the mid to upper 20s are expected across the
CWA. We will warm into the low to upper 50s on Wednesday, but
this is still below normal for this time of year. While a hard
freeze is not expected for most of the area on Wednesday night,
some low lying areas in the eastern Ozarks may dip into the mid
to upper 20s with most other locations in the lower 30s.

A warming trend will then begin on Thursday with highs returning
to the 60s with 70s by Friday and Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1227 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

South-southeasterly winds will increase into the early morning
hours, with sustained winds of 20-25kts and gusts of 25-35kts+
expected. Low-level wind shear also appears to pose a threat to
aviators, with 40-45kts of shear during the same time frame,
peaking Monday morning immediately ahead of frontal passage.

Rain is already moving into the area, with JLN recording heavy
rain within the hour before TAF issuance. Precipitation is
expected to continue backbuilding over JLN as it moves east into
the rest of the area, which could result in heavy rain at times
at JLN. Visibility and ceilings will likely be reduced within
heavy rain bands at all three TAF sites as they occur.
Intermittent lightning is also expected as these rainstorms
develop, with coverage increasing into Monday morning.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 435 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

Record Precipitation:

March 25:
KUNO: 1.40/2010

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Wind Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for KSZ073-097-101.
MO...Wind Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for MOZ055>058-
     066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Camden
CLIMATE...Camden


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.