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000
FXUS64 KSHV 240920
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
420 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Thursday)
Issued at 256 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Warm start for us ranging in the 60s under a blanket of stratocu
over much of our Four-State area at 5-7kft. This is the wild card
as it has wheels with scattering back edge crossing I-30 now. This
will likely affect our usual morning low cloud routine. There is
a little scattering in the wake of the upper deck over NE TX and
SE OK in the 2-3kft range. More of this lower deck may bloom
around daybreak through mid morning or we may just see some light
fog develop with widely varied spreads of just a few degrees in
some locales, but many with 5-10 degrees spreads out there too,
where the low clouds are more likely than any light fog.

Surface winds are light SW with our KSHV VAD indicating S/SW at
25-30KT for the first couple of thousand feet. This will mix down
quicker minus the clouds and temps could easily bust our high
temp forecast, but as it stands we are going warmer than any
guidance just based on yesterday`s numbers. This upper deck of
low clouds first emerged from late day TX dry line based
convection with some subsident air in the wake of over N TX seen
on water vapor fairly well. So how does all this work out if the
HRRR is right with popping some showers right in the heart of the
ArkLaTex in the next few hours. Good question.

Afternoon heating will likely have at it too with a weak frontal
boundary over E OK and W AR where 50 degree dew points are sinking
our way. The WPC even has QPF down over our Parishes later today
and early this evening with this first push. So we are pretty much
lower 80s today and cooler low to mid 60s tomorrow morning as
skies may end up fairer by this evening. The bigger bust comes if
they all go fast with SW winds and perhaps even a touch of
compressional heating, mid 80s may arise starting this warm.

However, we should see some light E/NE dropping over AR into N LA
and with that we have capped highs in the upper 70s there. The
models are running much drier tomorrow as this push today will
wash away in the prevailing southerly winds. At some point our
surface winds are going to back to S/SE and become more gusty
ahead of the next gradient push for the early long term. So
suffice it to say, challenging day ahead from right now. In the
absence of rain clouds tomorrow will warm in the low to mid 80s as
planned. The SPC has a General Risk for us today and the day 2
persist the same, but edges a Marginal Risk in late from the west
associated with the second Friday push. /24/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 256 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Lows will continue to warm for our late work week with 60s
becoming lower 70s as the muggy air piles in off the Gulf.
Isolated activity may be possible late tomorrow and then should
be content to wait over N TX and OK/AR primarily, before pushing
into our cwa again early on Friday. The SPC day 3 covers up our NW
third of SE OK/NE TX and SW AR with a Slight Risk, so spotters
get ready at that time late on Friday and overnight as well. The
medium range models all agree on the greatest coverage linked to
the intensity with little to none on this second push for our LA
Parishes.

As mentioned yesterday, the upper ridging we have now will drift
eastward and build, acting to block the Westerlies until the
third push arrives late in the weekend and early next week. No
surface highs involved until late Monday with a 1015mb over the
middle MS River valley, but perhaps some good cool pooling pushing
if the likely slow moving storms can set it up. The upper levels
are all in very good agreement on the two core lows peeling off
the front range in the coming days. Each one will push on the east
coast upper ridging this weekend. The third bigger push comes in
much farther south over the SW U.S., but still tracks over the
central and high plains as the ridge holds on for us until late
Sunday and Monday QPF signal-wise. The SPC day 6 outlook has most
of our cwa in the Slight Risk hatching. So we will see more rain,
but not everywhere with this weak but effective blocking pattern
unfolding. The surface high to our north will build to 1020mb by
midnight on Monday night and then the models just wash the
boundary out over our northern half Tuesday into Wednesday. /24/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1242 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

For the 24/06Z TAF period, MVFR to low VFR cigs are currently
observed across our airspace with further deterioration to low
MVFR/IFR at most terminals as daybreak approaches. This is due to
increasing low-level moisture pooling ahead of a weak cold front
to our north across central OK/AR. Expect light southerly winds to
prevail through much of the period, becoming variable across our
NE terminals as the frontal boundary attempts to backdoor south
into our airspace. Cigs should slowly improve back to low VFR or
possibly higher end MVFR across our northern sites depending on
exactly how far south the front manages to get before stalling.
Some patchy fog may also limit vsbys briefly this morning, and
will monitor for isolated convection along the front with TEMPO
SHRA/TSRA conditions possible late in the period at KTXK/KELD.

/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  82  66  86  71 /  20  20  10   0
MLU  80  64  84  67 /  30  10  10   0
DEQ  79  64  81  66 /  40  40  30  10
TXK  80  64  82  69 /  30  20  20   0
ELD  78  61  82  66 /  30  20  10   0
TYR  82  66  83  71 /  10  10   0   0
GGG  82  65  84  69 /  20  20  10   0
LFK  83  65  85  69 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...19