Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 221214
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
814 AM EDT Fri Mar 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 343 AM EDT Fri Mar 22 2024

In the upper levels this morning, a potent shortwave trough is
ejecting from the Southern Plains into the lower Mississippi River
Valley with an area of broad diffluence ahead of the shortwave
over the Florida Peninsula and eastern Gulf of Mexico. At the
surface, this is resulting in a somewhat messy pattern with the
surface low lifting northeast into the Gulf Coast this afternoon,
preceded by a warm front moving into the Florida Peninsula.
Multiple rounds of convection are forecast to move through the
forecast area along and near the warm front, with the first round
already ongoing. While previous model cycles were forecasting
significant rain totals and severe weather potential with this
event, those dynamics have largely shifted south over the last
24-36 hours of forecasts. However, some marginal threat of
flooding and severe weather remains, with the greatest threat over
southwest Florida. Otherwise, as southerly winds increase today
and turn to southwesterly this afternoon, there will be a high
risk of rip currents this afternoon through Sunday.

As the surface low lifts northeast, it will drag a cold front
through the area late tonight and Saturday morning, fostering a
final round of showers and storms and turning winds to westerly.
Temperature drops behind the front will be minimal, with
temperatures running near to slightly below normal on Sunday, then
quickly increasing again Monday and Tuesday as high pressure builds
in north of Florida then shifts east into the Atlantic.

Wednesday and Thursday, a broad upper level trough will swing
through the central and eastern US, dragging a weak cold front
through the Florida Peninsula Wednesday and Wednesday evening. This
will result in chances of showers or storms, and another minor
cooldown Wednesday night and Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 808 AM EDT Fri Mar 22 2024

We will see on and off showers throughout the day at our TAF
sites. Showers should be ending between 03-06z. We can expect
mainly VFR conditions outside of brief MVFR CIGS and MVFR/IFR
Visibility due to heavy showers. Winds will mainly be out of a
southerly direction and will be gusting out of the south
throughout the daytime hours.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 343 AM EDT Fri Mar 22 2024

Increasing southerly winds this morning are building to Small Craft
Advisory levels as rounds of thunderstorms move through the waters
today. Winds will briefly subside below advisory levels tonight,
then build back to advisory conditions Saturday afternoon as a cold
front pushes through the waters, turning winds to out of the
northwest. Winds will subside by Sunday afternoon as high pressue
build back in, although nocturnal surges could bring winds back up
to Exercise Caution levels Sunday and Monday nights.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 343 AM EDT Fri Mar 22 2024

Humidity will not drop to critically low levels during the next few
days as a storm system moves through the area today. Spotty high
dispersion indices will be possible each of the next couple of
afternoons.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  73  67  78  60 /  80  70  10   0
FMY  73  68  80  62 /  90  70  40   0
GIF  72  65  81  59 /  70  70  20   0
SRQ  76  66  79  62 /  80  70  20   0
BKV  74  61  79  54 /  70  70  20   0
SPG  72  68  76  63 /  90  70  10   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk from 2 PM EDT this afternoon through
     Sunday evening for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-
     Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Saturday for Charlotte
     Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita
     Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from
     Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters
     from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Tampa
     Bay waters-Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20
     to 60 NM-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20
     to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL
     out 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Shiveley
DECISION SUPPORT...ADavis
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...ADavis


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