Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
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628 FXUS63 KTOP 041943 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 243 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe T-storms appear likely on Monday afternoon into Monday night across the area. All hazards appear possible including tornadoes. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 228 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024 Clouds are only gradually clearing in wake of the front that brought morning showers and storms to the area. Stratus should eventually diminish however another wave moving northeast will usher in more mid and high clouds overnight. This should act to inhibit more widespread fog potential. The wave will also produce another round of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across southeast KS. Some of that precipitation may make it into areas mainly along and southeast of I-35 late tonight into Sunday. All attention then turns to the wave that is currently over the CA coast. This wave will quickly emerge into the Plains on Monday morning as the lead shortwave and mid level jet streak take on a negative tilt and move into the Dakotas during the afternoon. A sfc low will move north into southwest SD during the day with a surface trough/dryline extending southward through central KS. There could be late morning storm development along this trough across northwest KS as the initial wave and ht falls overspread the area...however it still appears that the bulk of the development will occur by mid to late afternoon along the sfc boundary where a favorable shear/CAPE values will exist to support severe storm development. Exact location of afternoon development remains in question but may be somewhere in the highway 81/CNK to ICT area developing ENE from that area. Low level shear values especially toward and after sunset will increase with the LLJ such that the tornado risk will increase wherever storms happen to be in that 7pm to 10pm window. Bottom line is that we need to message that our confidence is increasing that severe storms will occur Monday afternoon into Monday night. If there is any good news in this forecast it is that a pattern change does appear to be on the horizon such that we may get a break from the severe weather after Monday night perhaps for the rest of week into next weekend. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1210 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024 Clouds have been slow to erode across the area keeping MVFR conds in place this afternoon. It appears that CIGS should become VFR after 21z today. North winds should become light northeast after sunset. There appears to be some low risk for patchy fog across the area tonight given recent rains and lack of sun/drying today along with the light winds tonight. However drier air is moving into the area so will hold off on mentioning it in the TAF forecast at this point. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Omitt AVIATION...Omitt