000
FXUS63 KTOP 230536
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1236 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and a few thunderstorms move through this evening and
  overnight for areas along and north of Interstate 70. No
  severe weather is expected.

- Unsettle pattern sets up Thursday into the weekend with
  several rounds of thunderstorms, including the potential for
  severe weather Thursday through Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Upper-level flow has become quasi-zonal across the Central Plains
this afternoon with a closed low progressing southeast out of
Saskatchewan. A tightening pressure gradient has led to a windy day
with gusts of 35-50mph observed this afternoon. Strong WAA has
boosted temperatures into the 70s across the area. Gusts largely
subside after sunset as a weak surface boundary approaches the area
from the north. A subtle mid-level perturbation advances east along
the KS/NE stateline this evening and overnight with sufficient lift
and moisture to generate some showers and a few thunderstorms.
Models have trended a bit farther south with this activity, although
best chances (50-60%) for rain remain along the KS/NE border.

The surface front swings through the area during the morning hours
on Tuesday with winds switching to the north. The post-frontal
airmass is only slightly cooler and highs will reach the 70s again
Tuesday afternoon. Surface high pressure moves in from the north on
Wednesday as a couple of weak perturbations transgress the central
CONUS. With low-level dry air in place, precipitation chances are
slim (15-25%) during the day Wednesday; both the GFS and ECMWF have
trended drier for the daytime hours as well.

A period of unsettled weather begins Thursday as a potent wave
approaches the Plains. Southerly flow shunts a warm front northward
through the day Thursday and PoPs increase as a lead wave in
the southwest flow ejects across the Plains. Following closely
behind is a second wave, potentially negatively tilted, that
progresses through on Friday. With the surface low lifting into
central Nebraska, the warm sector will reside across eastern
Kansas with a dryline extending southward across Kansas by
midday Friday. Differences in deterministic guidance remain
rather large in timing and location of synoptic features, but
the overall shear/CAPE environment would be supportive of severe
weather, especially Friday. Details will become clearer as the
event approaches, so be sure to stay up to date with the latest
forecast. Another trough is progged to eject across the Plains
this weekend, keeping chances for showers and storms in the
forecast through Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1236 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

VFR TAFs can be expected through the period at all sites. Winds
will remain out of the south through the early morning hours
before shifting towards the northwest following a surface
boundary passage. Cannot rule out some marginal wind shear over
the next few hours, but will only be an issue if winds fall
below 10 knots. This has not been the case and is the reason for
no mention of wind shear in TAFs. Winds will begin to decrease
below 10 knots Tuesday evening, remaining out of the north.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Flanagan
AVIATION...Griesemer