Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
866 FXUS64 KTSA 300529 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1229 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 942 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 The current forecast remains on track with only slight changes for the evening update. While current low temps are on the colder side of guidance, primarily for western forecast zones, clear skies and calm winds under sfc high pressure should allow for overnight lows in the 50s. Sfc winds become light out of the south across our western-most zones later tonight, and this may hold temps slightly warmer than the rest of the FA. Otherwise, patchy fog may develop tonight... particularly across SE Oklahoma and NW AR... where dew point depressions & winds will be the lowest and overlap with the axis of heavier rainfall from the past few days. The remainder of the forecast appears to be in good shape at this time. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Tonight) Issued at 213 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 A few showers are bubbling across portions of southeast Oklahoma in the vicinity of the front that remains stretched across far southeast Oklahoma into western Arkansas. This activity should shift eastward before sunset along with the movement of an upper level disturbance. Otherwise, expect a seasonably cool night, given the influence of surface high pressure in the area. Patchy fog will be possible once again late tonight and into tomorrow morning in parts of southeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas, considering the position of the surface ridge axis tonight and existing surface moisture. && .LONG TERM... (Tomorrow through Monday) Issued at 213 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 Gusty south to southwest winds will develop tomorrow as the surface high shifts east and a low pressure system approaches from the west. Expect above normal temperatures tomorrow. The front associated with the low pressure will approach the Oklahoma border tomorrow afternoon and evening, providing a potential focus for thunderstorms in parts of northeast Oklahoma late afternoon and evening. Ample instability is forecast northwest of I-44 by mid to late afternoon, although a cap may hinder development this far south during the afternoon. An expected thunderstorm complex in Kansas may drop southward into parts of northeast Oklahoma, especially toward Wednesday morning hence slightly higher POPs in the evening and overnight, extending into Wednesday morning as well. Isolated thunderstorms could also develop well to the west along the dryline tomorrow afternoon and evening, but are likely to diminish before reaching eastern Oklahoma. Into Wednesday and Wednesday night, additional isolated to scattered thunderstorms may develop along the front near the Kansas border and also in southeast Oklahoma in response to a weak disturbance and increasing theta-e advection. More widespread showers and thunderstorms remain on track for Thursday and into Thursday night in advance of a cold front moving through the area. Heavy rain appears likely with these storms given the forecast precipitable water values, with already saturated grounds favoring potential for flooding. A Flood Watch may be needed in the next day or two if these signals continue. In addition to the heavy rain and flooding potential, severe weather may accompany them as well, with forecast instability favoring portions of southeast Oklahoma. Uncertainty exists regarding whether the front will completely clear the area or not, leading to low shower and thunderstorm chances persisting into Friday. The front should lift northward Friday night and into Saturday, bringing additional showers and thunderstorms. A repeat of the above may occur Sunday and into early next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1225 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 Skies will be clear and winds will be light through Tuesday morning. During the day Tuesday, southerly winds will strengthen and become a bit gusty during the afternoon (15-25 kts). Breezy conditions will persist into the evening, though speeds may diminish slightly. Scattered thunderstorms are expected near or just north of KBVO between 3-6Z Tuesday evening, with a 30% chance of impacting the terminal. The main impacts would be strong gusty winds, heavy rain, and lightning. There is a 10-20% chance the gusty outflow winds from any storms could impact KTUL or KRVS during this same period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 86 64 84 66 / 10 20 30 40 FSM 87 62 85 68 / 0 0 20 20 MLC 86 65 81 67 / 0 10 30 30 BVO 86 60 84 64 / 10 30 40 40 FYV 84 61 82 65 / 0 10 20 20 BYV 83 60 84 65 / 0 10 10 10 MKO 84 62 84 65 / 0 10 20 30 MIO 82 61 83 65 / 0 30 20 30 F10 84 63 83 66 / 0 10 30 40 HHW 82 62 83 66 / 0 0 30 30 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...22 LONG TERM....22 AVIATION...06