Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 191150 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
550 AM MDT Thu Apr 19 2018

A potent low pressure system approaching from the west will spread
strong southerly winds across NM today and tonight. An Aviation
Weather Warning is a near likelihood for KABQ by 10am as gusts are
already near 30 kts. The strongest winds today are expected from the
AZ border eastward to the Rio Grande Valley where gusts near 40 kts
are expected aft 21Z. Moisture surging northward on southerly flow
will allow a few wet/dry showers and storms to develop aft 00Z
between the Rio Grande Valley and the Cont Dvd. This activity will
elevate potential for severe downburst winds over 60 mph and blowing
dust. A west-southwest wind shift will move across western NM this
evening as drier air arrives behind a cold front. Meanwhile, rain
and snow are expected to develop over the northern mts late tonight.



.PREV DISCUSSION...336 AM MDT Thu Apr 19 2018...

An approaching upper level low pressure system will cause windy
conditions and fire weather concerns to redevelop today. The strong
south and southeast winds will persist through tonight in central
areas. Wind gusts will peak from 40 to 60 mph, with the strongest
gusts in central areas including Albuquerque and Santa Fe. The upper
low will also draw moisture for rain showers, thunderstorms and
mountain snow showers into the state tonight through Saturday. A
few storms could turn severe this evening in central areas, where
thunderstorm enhanced wind gusts could reach 65 mph. On Friday
afternoon a few severe storms may impact the east central and
southeast plains with damaging winds and large hail. The upper low
will pass eastward along the Colorado and New Mexico border
tonight and Friday with several inches of snow accumulation
possible in the northern mountains above 9,000 feet, and a few
inches as low as 8,000 feet. A cold front will cross with the
system causing high temperatures to fall below normal areawide at
the end of the week, but readings will rebound as a ridge of high
pressure crosses early next week.


A complex collage of weather impacts is expected as the deep, closed
upper level low pressure system approaches the Four Corners today,
then passes eastward along the CO/NM border tonight through Saturday.
The aforementioned wind impacts will mainly occur this afternoon
through tonight, except for lingering gusts to 50 mph in the south
central mountains on Friday. Snow will begin to fall this evening on
higher peaks of the northern mountains, then up to 8 inches of
accumulation is expected above 9,000 feet late tonight through late
afternoon on Friday. Thereafter, models indicate a dry slot will wrap
into the southern portion of the low pressure system causing
significant snow accumulation to stop.

The dry slot will also usher a low level dry line eastward across
the eastern plains on Friday, with some severe storms possible across
east central and southeast areas. The best chance of wetting rainfall
with the system will occur along and northeast of a line from Navajo
Lake to Clovis, where 0.10-0.75 inches of rain or liquid equivalent
precipitation is expected. Parts of the northeast plains could
receive around 1 inch of rain, most of that falling Friday for them.
Thunderstorms that break out in central areas this evening will not
have much moisture to work with, but there will be a healthy shear
profile. Some storms this evening will have little or no rain with
the potential for wind gusts to 65 mph.

A ridge of high pressure will cross from the west on Sunday, allowing
temperatures to begin to rebound. Models depict a fairly week upper
level trough crossing from the west on Monday, with the best forcing
for precipitation expected north of New Mexico. There could be a fair
amount of gusty virga and maybe some drier variety thunderstorms
over portions of the forecast area on Monday afternoon, depending on
how far south the forcing for showers tracks. Any wetting
precipitation will probably be relegated to the northern mountains.




An unseasonably deep upper level low pressure approaching from the
west today will spread widespread strong south/southwest winds
across NM. Winds will become strong by early afternoon from the AZ
border eastward to the Rio Grande Valley and nearby high terrain of
northern NM. Min humidity will fall into the 5-10% range west of the
Rio Grande Valley with 6 Haines. Higher min humidity in the 13-18%
range is expected within the Rio Grande Valley however winds will be
plenty strong for critical fire concerns.

The focus then turns to wet/dry storms developing between the Rio
Grande Valley and central mountain chain after 5 pm. Enough moisture
advection takes place on strong southerly flow to provide a mixture
of wet and dry storms. There is also enough coverage of storms along
the western axis of moisture for LAL 6 near the Cont Dvd. This may
result in additional fire starts followed by much drier air racing
eastward late Thursday night on gusty west winds. The core of the
upper low will approach northern NM Thursday night with a potential
slug of rain showers and high terrain snow through Friday.

Showers and storms will then spread eastward into eastern NM through
Friday. Forecast precip amounts would be the greatest in many months
for the east-central and northeast plains. Models are hinting at a
secondary moisture increase Friday on the back side of the upper low
with a couple more showers possible for the western high terrain
into Friday evening. Humidity recoveries Friday night will range
from excellent across the east to very good across the west.

The remainder of the forecast features a break in the recent fire
growing pattern. Northwest flow aloft Saturday will transition to a
weak shortwave ridge with weaker winds through Sunday. Temperatures
will trend a little warmer each day but remain near to below normal
through the weekend. Much better humidity recoveries are expected
compared to what we`ve seen lately. Southwest flow is indicated to
increase by Monday and Tuesday however there is better moisture in
this pattern so humidities may not become critical on either day.



Deep low pressure approaching from southern CA will move east and
spread strong southerly winds over NM Thursday. The strongest winds
are expected along and west of the Rio Grande Valley aft 21Z when
gusts near 35 kt become common. Moisture will surge north through
late afternoon and work with ascent to create an area of gusty rain
showers, storms, and virga aft 00Z. Model guidance indicates winds
may become damaging around the Rio Grande Valley aft 01Z and any
precip activity will enhance downburst wind gusts. Areas from Grants
to Cuba, ABQ, and Santa Fe may see a lengthy duration of S/SE wind
gusts of 45 to 55 kts aft 01Z before tapering off aft 06Z.



Red Flag Warning from noon today to 6 PM MDT this evening for the
following zones... NMZ106.

Wind Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 3 AM MDT Friday for the
following zones... NMZ501>506-508-516-517-520-523-524-527>529.

High Wind Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 3 AM MDT Friday for
the following zones... NMZ507-518-519-521-522.

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this evening
for the following zones... NMZ101-105-109.

Wind Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to midnight MDT tonight for
the following zones... NMZ510>515.


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