Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 260204
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
804 PM MDT Wed Apr 25 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 758 PM MDT Wed Apr 25 2018

Cold front will reach the CO-WY border by midnight and
then move across the rest of nern CO before 12z.  Gusty
north winds will occur behind front, however, little pcpn
is expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 303 PM MDT Wed Apr 25 2018

Clear skies and light winds will give way to a fast moving cold
front later tonight with gusty winds and a slight chance of
showers into Thursday morning. The front is pushing quickly south
through Montana this afternoon, and will reach the northern border
toward midnight and is still on track to push through Denver 2-3
AM. Gusty north winds will develop behind the front, and continue
across the plains through most of Thursday before relaxing. Should
see peak gusts of 35 to 45 mph most of this time east of I-25.
Then winds gradually drop off late in the day Thursday as gradient
and mixing relax.

With regard to precipitation chances, there are a few radar echoes
beginning to show up across Montana, but low level moisture is
quite limited. That said, there is a chance of shallow
anticyclonic upslope into the Front Range so with the northerly
flow will mention some showers from the Front Range Mountains and
Foothills east/southeast across Denver and the Palmer Divide
Thursday morning. Don`t think this would be much more than a few
sprinkles/flurries given the limited moisture profiles, with
perhaps a dusting of snow in the foothills/Palmer Divide.
Temperatures will be cooler, but some return of sunshine later in
the day should help readings push back into the upper 50s across
the plains.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 303 PM MDT Wed Apr 25 2018

Sharp upper level ridge will pop up across the Great Basin
Thursday night and then pass across the state Saturday and
Saturday night. This will bring warming temperatures through this
period. By Saturday, enough moisture is forecast to build under
the ridge to bring a chance of afternoon/evening showers and
thunderstorms, with the highest (scattered) coverage in/near the
mountains.

By Sunday, there are signs that a weak ejecting short wave will
take most of the moisture with it, and continued downslope will
bring even warmer temperatures with highs expected to crack the
80F degree mark on the plains. I`m quite unsure whether or not
there would be enough moisture around to bring a chance of
afternoon thunderstorms, but this pattern would favor the eastern
plains if anyone were to see storms on Sunday. Fire danger may
increase in areas that haven`t seen much recent precipitation or
green-up, namely Lincoln county.

For Monday into Wednesday, models are indicating a deep but slow
moving upper level trough to carve out over the southwestern U.S.
This pattern would favor a return of cooler and unsettled weather.
Until more certainty develops with regard to the exact pattern
evolution, we will keep a chance of showers and storms in the
forecast through the first half of next week, along with
temperatures averaging a little cooler than climatological norms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 758 PM MDT Wed Apr 25 2018

Winds were southeast early this evening but should become more
southwest by midnight ahead of a cold front.  This front should
reach DIA around 09z with gusty north winds behind it.  Also will
see ceilings drops down to the 3500-4000 ft range by 12z.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RPK
SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...RPK


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