Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 201933

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
233 PM CDT Tue Mar 20 2018

...Updated Short term, Long term, and Fire weather discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 229 PM CDT Tue Mar 20 2018

An area of high pressure at the surface will cross western Kansas
tonight. The lightest winds early Wednesday morning will be
across central Kansas, mainly east of highway 183. Given where the
lighter winds will be located around daybreak will favor
undercutting the coldest guidance for lows east of highway 183
despite some high clouds being possible around 12z Wednesday. Am
currently favoring lows tonight in the upper 20s to lower 30s.

Periods of scattered to broken cloud cover will be possible
Wednesday afternoon. Still given this cloud cover it appears the
previous shift had the right idea on temperatures rebounding back
into the mid 60s given the 3 to 6C 850mb 24 hour temperature
change from 00z Wednesday to 00z Thursday.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 229 PM CDT Tue Mar 20 2018

Models continue to indicate a nice warm up late week as downslope
flow improves and 850mb temperatures warm back to 15 to 18C by
00z Friday. 850mb temperatures are then forecast to range from 20
to 25C at 00z Saturday. This warming trend easily supports 70s for
highs on Thursday with highs in the 85 to around 90 degree range
being possible on Friday.

The next upper level trough is still forecast to exit the Central
Rockies and move out into the West Central High Plains early
Friday night. As this system approaches on Friday windy conditions
will develop across western Kansas. Given these expected wind
speeds along with afternoon relative humidity values falling back
into the teens...near critical to critical fire weather conditions
still appear possible for western Kansas. Elevated to near
critical fire weather conditions will also be possible on Thursday
across western Kansas but winds Thursday afternoon are not
expected to be as strong as those expected on Friday.

Models do keep this Friday upper level system progressive but the
exact track, timing of this wave is still a little uncertain.
Currently it appears that there are some hints that there may be
some precipitation across portions of northern Kansas Friday
night, especially north of the I-70 border but given the low
confidence will not adjust the previous dry forecast.

On Saturday a cold front will cross southwest Kansas with both
the GFS and ECMWF models suggesting some slightly cooler air will
briefly be returning Saturday night and Sunday. As this frontal
boundary stalls out across eastern Colorado and the panhandle of
Texas on Sunday a southeasterly upslope flow is expected to
develop north of this boundary. Also there should be some warm air
advection and moisture advection improving north of this boundary
late Sunday into Monday as the next upper level system approaches
from the southwest. This will not only keep temperatures on the
cool side early next week under the expected cloud cover but it
will also bring our next decent chance for some precipitation to
western Kansas.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1201 PM CDT Tue Mar 20 2018

High pressure at the surface will cross western Kansas this
afternoon and tonight. The northwesterly winds at 10 to 15 knots
this afternoon will become variable at less than less than 10
knots after sunset. BUFR soundings indicating only high level
moisture will be spreading across western Kansas late tonight so
VFR ceilings can be expected over the next 24 hours. Will need to
monitor some light fog development in the HAYS area between 10z
and 14z Wednesday but confidence at this time is not high enough
to insert a period of MVFR visibilities into the HAYS taf just yet
around 12z Wednesday.


Issued at 229 PM CDT Tue Mar 20 2018

An area of low pressure will deepen over eastern Colorado late
week as an upper level trough approaches from the southwest. Gusty
southwest winds can be expected both on Thursday and Friday but
the stronger winds will be likely on Friday afternoon and evening
as this upper level system exits the Rockies and begins to move
across the Western High Plains. Not only will it be windy Thursday
and Friday but dry conditions will also possible, especially west
of a Dighton to Meade line. West of this line afternoon relative
humidity values will be falling back into the teens both days and
result in significant to near critical fire risk levels both days.
On Friday based on the stronger winds and lower afternoon
relative humidity values there will also be a very good chance for
critical fire weather conditions developing for portions of
southwest Kansas Friday afternoon. Outdoor burning late week
should not be attempted given these expected conditions. Any
outdoor fire could quickly escape and be difficult to control.


DDC  32  66  38  74 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  27  66  35  75 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  28  66  36  77 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  28  67  35  77 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  28  65  38  71 /   0   0   0   0
P28  31  66  39  73 /   0   0   0   0




SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
FIRE WEATHER...Burgert is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.