Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 222030
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
230 PM MDT Tue May 22 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Another day or two of thunderstorms to deal with, as low level
moisture and instability continue. The storms will continue
tonight and Wednesday, mostly from about El Paso eastward. A few
of these storms may produce large hail and heavy downpours. West
of El Paso, mostly clear skies will continue, to be joined by the
eastern area after Wednesday. Temperatures will remain near normal
Wednesday and then climb to well above normal for Friday into the
weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorms in the east to continue tonight and again on
Wednesday. Upper low over the Great Basin will begin lifting out
on Wednesday. At the surface, dryline continues to lie mostly
north-south over the Rio Grande Valley. Latest surface obs show
the line may be moving east as the models have hinted, as
dewpoints are falling at Las Cruces, Santa Teresa and El Paso.
Satellite showing considerable CU fields, but only over the
northern Sacs have any of the CU shot through the cap to become
near severe. Both NAM/GFS showing deeper moisture/instability and
QPF mostly east of El Paso tonight but I will leave in a low POP
for El Paso just in case moisture doesn`t evacuate as fast as
models show. Decent shear environment and MUCAPES of 1000-1500
j/kg this evening would still indicate some potential for severe
storms.

Wednesday and Thursday...models continue to show the
moisture/instability persisting both days east of El Paso, so will
keep POPs in this area. Combination of the original upper low
beginning to lift out and new upper low replacing it over the
southern Great Basin will finally scour out the moisture on Friday.

Friday into the weekend...Drier airmass in place will allow for
mostly clear skies and warmer temperatures. Highs back to 5-10
degrees above normal. Lowland highs on Friday/Saturday will
approach triple digits.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 23/00Z-24/00Z...
VFR conditions expected through forecast period as drier air is
moving in from the W. Exception is E of a Ruidoso - Sierra Blanca Tx
line where until 06Z psbl TSRAGS BKN020 2SM VRB35G45kts. Otherwise
FEW-SCT060-100 AND 250. Winds SSW 10g20 kts except ESE 10G20kts
extreme Otero and Hudspeth Counties. AFT 18Z winds SSW 12G22kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Fairly good wetting rains covered a lot of areas near and east of
the Rio Grande in the past 24 hours. But, a lot of the precip
managed to miss a good section of the Sacramento Mountains
(particularly between U.S. highways 70 and 82). The dryline will
continue to remain in eastern Otero/Hudspeth Counties this
afternoon, and isolated thunderstorms will be possible late this
afternoon and this evening. The slight chance of storms will linger
for a few more days. Otherwise, dry conditions will persist, with
somewhat breezy SW winds expected this afternoon in the Gila Region.
Temperatures should increase to around 5-10 degrees above normal by
late in the week, with Min RH values dropping into the single digits
again.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 66  92  66  94 /  10   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           65  91  65  91 /  30  10  10  20
Las Cruces              58  91  58  94 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              61  90  60  92 /  20   0   0  10
Cloudcroft              43  70  44  72 /  30  30  10  30
Truth or Consequences   59  90  62  93 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             51  83  52  87 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  54  90  55  94 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               54  89  54  93 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      66  91  66  94 /  10   0   0   0
Dell City               59  90  58  91 /  30  20  20  20
Fort Hancock            68  93  70  94 /  30   0   0  20
Loma Linda              60  89  60  91 /  30   0   0  10
Fabens                  62  93  62  94 /  20   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            61  91  61  94 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          66  91  67  93 /  10   0   0   0
Jornada Range           56  91  56  94 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   55  92  56  94 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                58  92  59  96 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               65  92  66  93 /  20   0   0  10
Mayhill                 48  76  49  79 /  30  30  20  30
Mescalero               47  78  47  81 /  20  30  10  30
Timberon                43  76  44  79 /  30  20  10  20
Winston                 45  86  49  89 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro               52  86  54  90 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               56  89  57  93 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            41  84  43  87 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                  48  84  50  87 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   42  87  43  91 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              42  86  44  90 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 50  85  52  89 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  54  90  54  94 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 53  91  54  94 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          53  91  54  93 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              52  85  52  89 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

Hefner/Novlan



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