Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 201057
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
657 AM EDT Sun May 20 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Tropical moisture will continue over the area into early next week
with high pressure offshore and frontal boundaries remaining to the
west and north. A cold front will approach from the north midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
As of 650 AM Sun...Showers have become more scattered over the
past couple hours, but should rebound a bit going into the
daytime hours. The highest chances for rain this morning will
be along the HWY 17 corridor, and have likely PoPs here, with
chance PoPs further inland and along the coast. Then, as deep
moisture plume breaks down, more scattered showers are expected
in the afternoon. Temps currently are in the lower 70s across
the region, and will warm into the upper 70s and low 80s later
today, again inhibited by considerable cloudiness.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 655 AM Sun...Scattered shower activity is expected
tonight, but will be mainly along the coast. Have chance PoPs
across the coast, with a slight chance of precip inland. Low
temps will be warm and muggy again, in the upper 60s to low 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 330 AM Sunday...Little change in the overall pattern is
expected for the early part of the week, but a pattern shift
will occur around midweek as a back door front drops south
across the region, finally bringing some drier air to the region
for the latter portion of the week.

Monday and Tuesday...High pressure ridge over the Atlantic to
continue to provide moist southwest winds across our area for
the early part of the week. Weak mid-level shortwave energy will
enhance convection a bit on Monday, but less activity is
indicated by the model consensus for Tuesday. High temperatures
will generally range in the low to mid 80s.

Wednesday and Thursday...A pattern shift Wednesday night into
Thursday will bring in a drier pattern for the latter portion of
the week. Good model consensus for a back door cold front to
move into the CWA between 06z and 12z on Thursday. The front
will provide sufficient convergence to enhance shower and
thunderstorm activity ahead of it on Wednesday, before slightly
cooler and more stable air reaches the area Wednesday night.
PoP-wise, Wednesday appears to be the wettest day of the week.
Temperatures will be slightly cooler for Thursday with less
coverage of showers and thunderstorms.

Friday and Saturday...A light E/SE flow Friday become more
southerly on Saturday and increases a bit bringing a return of
more humidity and warmer temperatures. In fact, Saturday appears
to be the warmest day of the week with highs well into the 80s
away from the water. Rain chances Friday and Saturday will be
below climatology.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Short Term /Through Monday Morning/...
As of 655 AM Sun...MVFR conditions are present across the
airspace this morning, and will continue until late morning,
when VFR conditions return. Scattered to numerous rain showers
are again forecasted today, which could reduce flying conditions
temporarily through Monday morning.

Long Term /Monday through Thursday/...
As of 335 AM Sunday...Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
possible Monday through Wednesday, mainly diurnally driven
during the afternoon and evening hours. This could produce some
occasional sub-VFR conditions. Drier and slightly cooler air
should produce a generally VFR day for Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through Sunday/...
As of 655 AM Sun...Small craft conditions will continue through
Sunday night across the southern and central waters for
hazardous seas of 4-7 ft, and southerly winds mostly 15-20 kts
with gusts around 25 kts. Seas and winds will begin to decrease
this evening, with winds becoming 10-15 kts by Monday morning,
with seas decreasing to 3-5 ft.

Long Term /Monday through Thursday/...
As of 340 AM Sunday...A very steady-state marine forecast
through midweek as high pressure offshore continues to provide
SW winds at 10-15 knots with seas running around 3 to 4 feet. A
back door front finally crosses the area between about 06z and
12z Thursday morning leading to a more NE wind flow, but winds
speeds should still remain at or below 15 knots with seas at 4
feet or less.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ095-098-
     103-104.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EDT Monday for AMZ154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Monday for AMZ156-158.
     Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for AMZ152.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SGK
NEAR TERM...SGK
SHORT TERM...SGK
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CTC/SGK
MARINE...CTC/SGK



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