Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 231134

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
634 AM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018

MVFR ceilings will prevail for a few hours this morning at KMLC,
with mainly VFR conditions elsewhere today, although a brief
period of MVFR may occur just about anywhere later this morning.
MVFR ceilings are likely to return this evening at all sites.
South winds will gust to near or above 25 knots at times today
into this evening, but will diminish across northeast Oklahoma
late tonight as a cold front approaches.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 320 AM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018/

Fire weather issues continue to be the main concern today with
warm temperatures and gusty south winds persisting. Higher
dewpoints (50F+) across western OK tonight will advect east today,
although afternoon relative humidity should still dip below 50% in
a few spots. Conditions should remain below Red Flag Warning
criteria, although dewpoint trends will need to be closely
monitored through the day.

There may be some spotty shower/isolated thunderstorm activity
later today and tonight across eastern sections as a cold front
pushes across the area. Poor fire weather conditions will persist
into Saturday as drier air arrives and north winds kick up behind
the cold front.

The aforementioned front should stall near the Red River Saturday
night, with an uptick of convection expected north of the
boundary by Sunday as active southwesterly flow aloft develops.

00Z long range guidance continues to paint a very wet picture
across the southern Plains going into next week as the moist
southwesterly upper flow deepens. The combination of unseasonably
high moisture, a slow moving front and favorable entrance region
jet dynamics will result in several periods of
showers/thunderstorms across eastern OK/northwest AR Monday
through at least Wednesday/Wednesday night. As it looks now, a
swath of 4-6 inches of rain is possible across the forecast area
during this period along with locally higher amounts. We`ll
continue to further refine the rainfall forecast over the next
several days.





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