003
FXUS63 KUNR 121111
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
511 AM MDT Sun May 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Unsettled this week with periodic chances for showers and
 thunderstorms, best chances Monday night through Tuesday.

-Seasonal temps through the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...(Today Through Saturday)
Issued at 136 AM MDT Sun May 12 2024

Mean NW flow can be expected aloft through next week, supporting
occasional weak PAC impulses. Each of these impulses will have the
ability to support isold-sct shra/ts as a frontal boundary
lingers over the region. Moisture will be limited with most of the
impulses as the GOMEX remains closed to the region, leaving the
main moisture source as leftover PAC moisture. The first in a
series of disturbances will arrive today, supporting slight
chances for showers and thunderstorms, mainly this afternoon. The
best chances for showers will be over the southern BH where eddy
convergence will be in place as northerly winds develop per the
passage of the associated sfc trough. Things dry out tonight with
dry conds through most of Monday, outside of the BH where enough
instability will be in place for diurnal convection. Shortwave
will arrive later in the day toward evening with increasing
chances for showers and thunderstorms overnight as a decent pocket
of moisture and ascent passes over the region. Mean toughing will
persist mid week with chances for showers each day. Things trend
drier later in the week, with continued low chances for showers
each day. Expect most areas will remain dry toward the end of the
week. Overall, temps will be seasonal with highs generally in the
70s, with Wed being the coolest day given clouds, weak CAA, and
lingering shower chances.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS Through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued At 511 AM MDT Sun May 12 2024

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon,
after 17-19z. Lower flight conditions are possible near any
storms. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through the
forecast period.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...JC
AVIATION...SE