Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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FXUS65 KVEF 200956
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
256 AM PDT Fri Apr 20 2018

.SYNOPSIS...A cold low pressure system over the region will
slowly move away toward the Four Corners today. Breezy winds will
persist today, especially in the Morongo Basin. Scattered showers
will linger near the southwest Utah border today. Dry and warmer
weather will return tomorrow, with very warm temperatures expected
much of next week.
&&

.SHORT TERM...through Sunday night. Satellite loop showed upper low
center spinning over northwest Arizona early this morning. Area
radars showed scattered very weak returns over Lincoln, Clark, and
Mohave counties. Rain gages showed mostly zeroes and traces. Low res
and high res models agree that chances for light showers will
continue for the eastern edge of the area until noon or slightly
after, with a few lightning strikes possible over the northeast
corner of Mohave County. Winds are more problematic. Early this
morning, northerly gusts were flirting with advisory criteria in the
Owens Valley, as were northwesterly gusts in the Morongo Basin.
Spotty advisory level winds will be possible in both areas through
the day, and also can`t rule out a few advisory level northwesterly
gusts over the NNSS, but the threat should be isolated enough in
space and time to forgo any advisories. As the low departs to the
east today, heights will rise and clouds will decrease, allowing
temperatures to recover significantly from yesterday`s unseasonably
cool readings. High pressure will bring further warming over the
weekend, with highs on Sunday likely to be 20-25 degrees above what
occurred Thursday.

.LONG TERM...Monday through Thursday...

A stretch of well above normal temperatures will continue from the
weekend into next week as ridging sits overhead. Diurnal temperature
ranges will be 8-12 degrees above normal through the long term, with
Las Vegas in the low 90s for highs which is more typical of late
May. A quick moving shortwave  to the north will aid breezy south
winds Monday and Tuesday, which should help boost temps even more
each of those days. While ridging looks to remain overhead through
Thursday, there is better agreement between models this morning on
an upstream cutoff low developing a couple hundred miles off the CA
coast on Wednesday. Prior runs have shown this feature as well, but
the latest runs are trending a slightly more progressive solution.
Cutoff now shows slow eastward advancement into NorCal on Thursday,
which would put the Great Basin and Mojave desert in a great
position for breezy to strong southerly winds; confidence is low on
current forecast wind speeds Thursday, which are fairly conservative
when compared to either extended MOS guidance. If models continue to
agree on this setup, I suspect winds will need to be increased for
Thursday.
&&

.AVIATION...For McCarran...Winds will be a bit squirrely early this
morning before settling into a north northwesterly direction after
sunrise, with gusts around 20 knots until early afternoon. Winds
will decrease in the afternoon, and also swing around to northerly
and perhaps even northeasterly before coming back around to the
typical southwesterly direction overnight. Aside from FEW-SCT clouds
around 080 through the afternoon, operationally significant clouds
and weather are not expected. Quieter weather is expected over the
weekend.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Areas roughly along and east of Highway 93 will see BKN
clouds and chances for light showers into the afternoon, with
thunder even possible over northeast Mohave County. Areas west of
Highway 93 will see fewer clouds. Breezy northwesterly surface winds
can be expected, especially in and near the Morongo Basin. Quieter
weather is expected over the weekend.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather according to standard operating procedures.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...Morgan
LONG TERM...Boothe

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