Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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Drought Information Statement
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
225 PM CDT Thu Aug 16 2018

...Severe to extreme drought expands across central and
northeastern Missouri...

SYNOPSIS...

Severe (D2) to extreme (D3) drought has expanded further to the east
over the past couple of weeks. Governor Parsons of Missouri declared
a Drought Alert for the following counties in central and
northeastern Missouri: Boone, Callaway, Cole, Knox, Lewis,
Moniteau, and Monroe. Exceptional drought (D4) conditions have also
now developed and expanded over parts of northwestern and central
Missouri.

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

Drought conditions across the area have caused several
agricultural and hydrological impacts.

Agricultural impacts include worsening crop conditions and poor
pasture and topsoil conditions. According to the latest United
States Department of Agriculture, soybean condition was rated 15
percent very poor and 22 percent poor and corn condition 21
percent very poor and 24 percent poor in the state of Missouri.
Pasture condition was 39 percent very poor and 37 percent poor.

Supply of hay is 42 percent very short and 36 percent short, with
stock water supply 29 percent very short and 30 percent short.
Short supplies of hay and water, in addition to grass, have led
to problems feeding and watering area livestock.

Topsoil moisture supply was rated 45 percent very short and 34
percent short, with subsoil moisture 48 percent very short and 32
percent short. Abnormally dry soil moisture conditions also help
yield a high fire danger across much of central and northeastern
Missouri. The latest Ketch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI) depicts a
high fire danger across these areas indicating a dry ground cover
that will burn readily.

Hydrological impacts include low streamflows, lowering well
levels, and drying ponds. For more specific information, please
see the hydrologic summary and outlook below.

CLIMATE SUMMARY...

Temperatures have run about 2-5 degrees above normal since the
start of meteorological summer (June 1st). Precipitation has also
run below to well below normal across large portions of Missouri.
Highest precipitation deficits in that same timeframe are on the
order of 2-7 inches for parts of central and northeastern
Missouri.

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...

The outlook from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) for the next
6-10 days favors below normal temperatures and above normal
precipitation.

In the week 2 timeframe, the CPC continues to favor below normal
temperatures, along with above normal precipitation across the
mid-Mississippi Valley.

If this cooler and wetter than normal pattern were to occur, some
improvement in ongoing drought conditions may be observed.

HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...

While severe drought impacts have shown a need for a general
degradation of drought categories across Missouri, 7-day streamflow
averages have not supported drought in all drought-classified areas
across eastern Missouri.  Recent rainfall over the past few weeks
have helped in parts of eastern Missouri, though not so much in
other parts.  Average 7-day streamflow implying potentially severe
(D2) drought was indicated in northeastern Missouri at Bear Creek,
North River, and the Fabius River branches near Ewing and Taylor,
with percentiles between 5 and 10.  Potentially moderate (D1)
drought conditions were indicated along the North Fork and South
Fork of the Salt River.  In Central Missouri, streamflow percentiles
are a mixed bag.  Potentially severe (D2) drought conditions were
indicated on Hinkson Creek, with average streamflow in the 9th
percentile. Dryness was less pronounced on the Moreau, Maries, and
Gasconade Rivers, with percentiles between 20 and 25.  In
southeastern Missouri, all average streamflows were above the 30th
percentile southeast of I-44.

Well depths in northeastern and central Missouri continue to fall,
particularly at Centralia, Vandalia, Mexico, Drake, and Wentzville.
In southeastern Missouri to the southeast of I-44, most area wells
continue to stay near or above normal levels for the season.

NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...

The next drought information statement will be issued around
Thursday August 23rd, 2018.

&&

RELATED WEB SITES...

LOCAL WEATHER, CLIMATE, AND WATER INFORMATION:
http://www.weather.gov/saintlouis

MIDWEST CLIMATE CENTER DROUGHT INFORMATION PAGE:
http://mcc.sws.uiuc.edu/cliwatch/drought/drought.jsp

MISSOURI STATE CLIMATOLOGIST:
http://climate.missouri.edu
MISSOURI DNR DROUGHT PAGE:
http://www.dnr.mo.gov/env/wrc/droughtupdate.htm

ILLINOIS STATE CLIMATOLOGIST:
http://www.isws.illinois.edu/atmos/statecli
ILLINOIS WATER SURVEY DROUGHT PAGE:
http://www.isws.illinois.edu/hilites/drought/

U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR:
http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/

U.S. DROUGHT PORTAL:
http://www.drought.gov

ADDITIONAL WATER INFORMATION:
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ADVANCED HYDROLOGICAL PREDICTION
SERVICE (AHPS):  http://water.weather.gov
U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY:  http://water.usgs.gov
ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS:  http://www.nwo.usace.army.mil/

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...

The U.S. Drought Monitor is a weekly collaborative effort between
a number of state and federal agencies including the National
Weather Service, the U.S. Department of Agriculture, and the
National Drought Mitigation Center.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...

If you have any questions or comments about this information,
please contact:

Jayson Gosselin or
Mark Britt
Climate Services Focal Points
--or--
Mark Fuchs
Senior Service Hydrologist

National Weather Service Saint Louis Missouri
636-441-8467
w-lsx.webmaster@noaa.gov

$$

Gosselin


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