Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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ACUS48 KWNS 220745
SWOD48
SPC AC 220744

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0244 AM CDT Tue May 22 2018

Valid 251200Z - 301200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Large-scale weak flow regime is expected to continue during the
upcoming medium-range period. Predictability will necessarily be low
days4-8.

Short-wave trough that flattens northern Plains ridge during the
day3 period is expected to dig southeast into the upper Great Lakes
region day4. Convection should be noted ahead of this feature,
possibly severe if strong enough buoyancy can develop within a
marginally sheared environment. Later this weekend, stronger
mid-level flow is expected to spread into the Rockies along leading
edge of a slow-moving upper trough. If stronger flow can spread into
the High Plains there may be a risk for isolated severe along the
downstream lee trough. In both cases confidence in organized severe
is not sufficient for adding probabilities.

..Darrow.. 05/22/2018



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