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Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KEPZ 151706
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1106 AM MDT Mon Apr 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 310 AM MDT Mon Apr 15 2024

A passing Pacific storm system to our north will deliver a dry,
windy, and dusty day to the Borderland. Winds will increase to 30
to 40 mph this afternoon with gusts around 50 mph. Blowing dust is
expected to become widespread, with local areas of dense dust and
difficult travel. Wildfire concerns will be high today, with dry
and windy conditions bringing critical fire weather to the region.
For the rest of the week, continued dry and warm, with breezy
afternoons.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 310 AM MDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Today is the day we`ve been messaging for several days about
strong winds, blowing dust, and elevated wild fire concern. All
looks to be on track, as the Pacific low pressure center is
currently over Las Vegas as expected. There are some last minute
model adjustments in the storms track that suggest winds may peak
a bit lower than we have been forecasting. The upper low was
earlier proged to pass directly over the Four Corners, with a
110kt jet over our region. The latest consensus is for that low
to track a bit further north of the Four Corners, with the upper
jet displaced to the north. However, the downward adjustment in
peak winds and gusts, is relatively insignificant, as we still
expect a quite windy day none the less. Thus we are keeping the
wind headlines as they are. This means potential for damage to
light and lose structures, as well as temporary utility power
interruptions. A Pacific front will push in from the west through
the afternoon, with high pressure spreading east behind it. As
the front moves in, we could see our strongest winds of the day.

We will still certainly be quite dry, with min relative humidity
in the single-digits. The lack of precipitation means that soils
and sands are dry, with dust source regions primed to provide
lofted dust. Soundings across the area indicate deep mixing due to
warm surface temps, and the cool pool of the trough aloft. These
features will support widespread blowing dust, with areas near
source regions seeing periods of dense dust, and significant
reductions in visibility (1-3sm..possibly lower). This poses
travel concerns for the afternoon hours. These same weather
conditions add a third weather hazard to the mix this afternoon in
the form of critical fire weather, with potential for wildfire
that defies control efforts.

The system exits overnight tonight, and for much of the rest of
the week we will be under a generally flat synoptic pattern with
deep westerly flow. We will remain dry through at least Friday.
Temperatures will trend warmer, after a marginally cooler Tuesday,
behind this afternoon`s frontal passage. By Thursday and Friday,
we could be seeing this year`s first 90 degree highs over the
lower lowland areas. Winds will be mostly light in the overnights
and mornings, with some typical spring afternoon breezy
conditions.

Friday night into Saturday, both the GFS and ENMWF models show a
back door front pushing up against the Sacramento mountains. The
upper air pattern is not supportive of this system pushing further
west across our area, so it should stall over eastern Otero
county. Models do suggest a surge of low-level moisture into the
Sacs with this, so we will see possible precip chances with this,
but it should stay limited to the Sacs and chances will be low due
to the shallow nature of the moisture. The rest of the area will
continue dry.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1102 AM MDT Mon Apr 15 2024

P6SM SKC-FEW250. Winds will be from around 240-260 at 20-30G45KTS
to start the period, then switching more to 270-300 at the same
speeds around 00Z, but gradually decreasing to 5-15KTS by 06Z at
all terminals. Areas of blowing dust could reduce visibilities to
1-3SM around 19Z-01Z, especially along and south of a KALM-KDMN
line.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 310 AM MDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Bottom line up front: Critical Fire Weather day across all but the
Gila country. Thus a Red Flag Warning is in effect for strong
winds and very low relative humidity. Lowlands should see SW winds
in the 30-40 mph range this afternoon with gusts near 50 mph.
Area mountains a bit stronger. Winds will shift direction, from SW
to W, through the afternoon, as a Pacific from moves west to east
from AZ toward the SACs through the day. MinRH will fall into the
single- digits eastern and central lowlands, with low teens in
the mountains and western lowlands. Temperatures will be a bit
above normal and there will be somewhat deep instability. All of
these are the ingredients for critical fire weather conditions.

The storm exits tonight with a non-descript, mostly flat, west
flow pattern that will keep the region dry, and bring about some
additional warming. RH will remain quite low, with poor overnight
recoveries, and daily dips into the single-digits. Temperatures
will warm to about 10 degrees above the daily averages. Winds will
be fairly light each night and morning, but become typically
breezy each afternoon.

We will watch for a back door cold front to possibly move into the
Sacs (FWZ113) on Friday night. Models suggest a bump in moisture
and possible precipitation over those east slopes. However it is
way too early to hang a hat on that outcome now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  85  51  81  54 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            83  45  76  50 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               81  45  81  50 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               77  42  78  47 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               53  32  54  37 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    73  44  79  49 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              62  38  70  44 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   76  40  79  45 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                71  38  76  43 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       82  47  79  53 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                85  43  81  43 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             89  44  81  48 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               76  43  73  49 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   86  45  81  49 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             80  43  78  47 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           78  49  78  53 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            76  39  79  45 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    77  39  81  45 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 78  44  79  48 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                78  42  77  47 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  68  39  68  41 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                64  37  66  40 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 65  34  65  39 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  64  38  73  43 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                70  38  79  46 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                73  38  79  44 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             63  33  72  39 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   67  35  74  42 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    68  37  78  43 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               63  38  73  45 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  67  38  75  45 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   75  39  77  45 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  76  40  77  45 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           77  38  79  45 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               70  39  74  47 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Wind Warning until 10 PM MDT this evening for TXZ419>421.

     Wind Advisory until 10 PM MDT this evening for TXZ418-422>424.

     Red Flag Warning until 10 PM MDT this evening for TXZ055-056.

NM...High Wind Warning until 10 PM MDT this evening for NMZ403-
     406>411-414>417-425>427.

     Wind Advisory until 10 PM MDT this evening for NMZ401-404-405-
     428-429.

     Red Flag Warning until 10 PM MDT this evening for NMZ111>113.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...26-Grzywacz
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
