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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
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FXUS64 KEPZ 191720
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1120 AM MDT Fri Apr 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 244 AM MDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Our dry and very warm weather will continue today, with high
temperatures well above average and relative humidity values below
10%. For this weekend, we will see a slight cooling trend with a
slight chance for thunderstorms in the Sacramento Mountains. For
the start of next week, our dry and warm weather will continue,
with high temperatures several degrees above average and breezy to
windy afternoon winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 244 AM MDT Fri Apr 19 2024

We have been enjoying relatively calm conditions for April, but
there are signs in the extended forecasts that the winds are set
to return. But for today, we will see more very warm temperatures
with high temperatures running around 10 degrees above average.
Moisture will start to creep into the region from the east, but it
will be too little and too shallow to have much effect on our
weather. By Saturday that moisture push will be a little stronger,
pushing to near the Rio Grande Valley. At the same time, we will
have a weak short wave trough aloft. The moisture and lift
associated with the trough aloft, will be just enough to give us a
chance for rain and thunderstorms, mainly in the Sacramento
Mountains and in Hudspeth County. The rest of the region will stay
dry. A few storms in the Sacramento Mountains may produce some
dry lightning. On Sunday, the push of moisture may be even a
little further to the west, but we will lose the lift and
instability associated with the trough aloft, as it will be well
to the east, so we will have little or no chances for rain on
Sunday.

For Monday and Tuesday we will have a zonal flow (west the east)
pattern across the region, which will push the moisture to the
east and start to dry us back out. At the same time we will see
breezy afternoon winds. For Wednesday and Thursday, an approaching
upper level trough will give us breezy to windy afternoon
conditions and then on next Friday a second upper level trough
will give us windy conditions Friday afternoon.

Taking a quick look at temperatures, like I mentioned, today`s
highs will be about 10 degrees above average, then for Saturday
and Sunday we will see lower high temperatures with highs a little
above average west of the Rio Grande and a little below average
east of the river. Then for most of next week, we will see high
temperatures running 3 to 7 degrees above average.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1118 AM MDT Fri Apr 19 2024

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period with skies FEW-
SCT250. Winds will increase early this afternoon to 8-13 knots
with gusts to 20 knots, out of ESE. Winds decrease to 4-9 knots by
02-04Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 244 AM MDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Fire weather concerns will begin to increase next week. In the
mean time we will continue to have little fire weather impacts.
For today our min RH`s will continue to be in the single digits in
the lowlands and near 10% in area mountains. On Saturday and even
more so on Sunday, we will see a modest push of moisture from the
east. On Saturday we will have a slight chance for thunderstorms,
mainly in the Sacramento Mountains, a few of those storms could
produce some dry lightning. By Sunday the min RH`s will range from
10 to 20% near the New Mexico/Arizona border to 30 to 40% in the
Sacramento Mountains.

For next week, we will see a drying trend, with warm temperatures,
and increasing winds. By Tuesday min RH`s will be back in the
single digits in the lowlands and 10 to 20% in area mountains. The
winds for Tuesday through next Friday will slowly be increasing
each day and we will see elevate to near critical fire weather
conditions on Wednesday and Thursday and critical fire weather
conditions next Friday will be a good possibility.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  90  57  87  52 /   0   0  10   0
Sierra Blanca            77  51  78  45 /   0  10  20  10
Las Cruces               90  53  87  49 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               85  54  80  45 /   0   0  20   0
Cloudcroft               63  41  56  34 /   0  10  50  20
Truth or Consequences    87  53  82  50 /   0   0  10   0
Silver City              79  49  76  47 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   89  50  85  47 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                87  49  83  48 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       87  57  85  51 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                79  49  76  45 /   0  10  20  10
Fort Hancock             87  51  86  47 /   0  10  10   0
Loma Linda               79  50  76  44 /   0   0  10   0
Fabens                   88  53  87  49 /   0   0  10   0
Santa Teresa             86  51  84  47 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           87  56  83  51 /   0   0  10   0
Jornada Range            86  50  84  44 /   0   0  10   0
Hatch                    89  49  86  47 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 88  55  85  50 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                84  51  79  47 /   0   0  10   0
Mayhill                  74  43  61  37 /   0   0  50  10
Mescalero                74  46  66  38 /   0   0  50  20
Timberon                 71  42  65  34 /   0   0  30  10
Winston                  80  46  75  44 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                85  49  82  45 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                86  48  83  44 /   0   0  10   0
Lake Roberts             80  43  77  42 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   82  46  79  43 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    85  48  83  47 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               81  49  78  49 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  82  49  79  46 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   87  49  84  47 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  87  51  84  47 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           86  49  83  48 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               80  49  78  50 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...38-Rogers
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
