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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
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FXUS64 KEPZ 122340
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
540 PM MDT Fri Apr 12 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS... Issued at 140 PM MDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Warm and dry conditions are expected for much of the next week.
Winds will be breezy through the weekend, but become very strong on
Monday as a storm system moves across the New Mexico-Colorado border
region. Wind gusts approaching 60 mph are possible Monday afternoon.
Slightly cooler temperatures but continued breezy conditions going
into the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 140 PM MDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Models continue to be in good agreement with each other and pretty
close to ensemble means. The forecast period starts with gradually
increasing southwest flow ahead of upper low moving into the Great
Basin and then through the Four Corners Monday. This will be the
main impactful weather maker during the period. Winds ahead of the
system will be breezy with temperatures warming into the upper 70s
to mid 80s for the lowlands. Overall a nice weekend, fire concerns
will be elevated but not make critical criteria.

Going into Monday, the upper low moves into the Four Corners to
south central CO with jet max moving along the International Border.
Southwest winds will increase ahead of an associated cold front that
starts entering western zones by midday then winds shift to the
west. Models showing H85 winds around 30-35KTS across most of the
CWA with mixing above H60. Fairly uniform wind speeds through the
mixed layer but should still see gusts approaching high wind
criteria for areas along and east of the Divide.
Probabilities of over 48KT gusts are over 50% for most of these
locations, so will go with a watch to get word out to partners going
into the weekend. Temperatures Monday will depend on timing of
front, but expect areas out west to get around 70 degrees with mid
80s east.

Behind the storm system, flow starts turning more westerly with
temperatures remaining near or slightly above average. Overnight
lows will be cool out west with fairly dry atmosphere and winds
dropping off at night. Winds will be low end breezy through at least
mid week with little impact expected. There is some fairly large
differences in models going into Friday when the GFS is bringing a
fairly strong back door cold front through, but the operational is
an extreme outlier compared to it`s ensembles. The EC now shows some
weak ridging and the front not making it anywhere near the CWA. Will
leave NBM temps which are close to average and see how things go
with models trends.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 522 PM MDT Fri Apr 12 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the period across all of the
TAF sites with CIG FEW-BKN250. The winds at first will be breezy
(10 to 15 kts with gust up to 25 kts) while out of between the
southwest and the southeast. The winds will become light (AOB 10
kts) especially at KLRU, KTCS and KDMN around 02Z. However, the
winds will increase at 10-20 kts with gusts up to 25 kts after
17Z. There will be no reduction in the VSBY across the runways.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 140 PM MDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Breezy winds will be the norm for much of the next week with below
critical conditions for this weekend but Monday will be a critical
day as winds pick up to 30+mph with gusts approaching 60 mph.
Moderate to high confidence in this scenario, so will be issuing a
Fire Weather Watch for Monday.  RH`s through the next several days
will fall to 6 to 12 percent as southwest flow increases over the
area. The strong winds Monday will come as a result of a deep upper
low moving across the Four Corners region. Slightly cooler
temperatures starting Tuesday, but no improvement in RH`s is
expected with winds low end breezy.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  56  85  58  86 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            52  81  56  81 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               50  83  49  84 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               50  81  50  81 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               39  56  44  57 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    48  81  48  82 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              46  73  46  72 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   45  82  45  83 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                45  80  46  80 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       54  84  56  84 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                46  85  48  86 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             49  87  53  87 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               51  77  53  77 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   51  86  55  87 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             49  83  51  82 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           55  82  54  82 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            40  83  46  82 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    47  83  48  83 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 49  84  51  83 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                48  81  50  81 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  45  71  48  73 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                44  68  46  70 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 41  68  43  68 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  40  73  41  75 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                44  78  45  80 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                44  80  46  81 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             34  72  37  73 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   40  76  41  76 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    43  78  43  78 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               39  74  39  73 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  42  75  42  76 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   45  81  44  81 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  46  81  49  81 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           44  81  46  81 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               42  74  45  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Wind Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening for
     TXZ418>424.

     Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening
     for TXZ055-056.

NM...High Wind Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening for
     NMZ403-405>411-414>417-427>429.

     Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening
     for NMZ111>113.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...36-Texeira
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
