Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS
000
FXUS64 KEPZ 221756
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1156 AM MDT Fri Mar 22 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 435 AM MDT Fri Mar 22 2024
We will have nice weather today, not much wind and high
temperatures running a few degrees above average. Increasing winds
and unsettled weather begin on Saturday, with warm temperatures
and breezy afternoon winds. We will be cooler on Sunday, but it
will be very windy, with areas of blowing dust. Monday will also
be breezy and it will be the coolest day of the week with high
temperatures running, 10 to 20 degrees below average. We will be
warmer for the middle of next week, with breezy to windy
afternoons each day.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 435 AM MDT Fri Mar 22 2024
We will have nice weather today as upper level high pressure
builds across the area. Our skies will be mostly clear, our high
temperatures will run a few degrees above average and our winds
will generally be light. Overall a lovely day. Of course we will
have to pay for today`s nice weather.
For the weekend, we will begin to come under the influence of a
series of upper level troughs. On Saturday, as the upper level
trough gets organized over California, we will a dry southwest
flow develop across the region. This weather pattern will give us
breezy to windy afternoon conditions with our high temperatures
running 5 to 10 degrees above average. The real impactful weather
starts on Sunday. By late Sunday morning, the upper level trough
will be nearing the Four Corners region. At the same time an
impressively strong lee side surface trough will be developing in
southeast Colorado. The strong surface trough will create a tight
packing of the surface pressure gradient across New Mexico. The
surface trough combined with strong winds aloft associated with
the upper level trough will lead to a very windy Sunday afternoon.
A high wind watch is in place for much of southern New Mexico and
far west Texas for Sunday. Probabilistic data is showing a better
than 50% chance for sustained winds of 40 mph across much of the
lowlands east of the Rio Grande and in area mountains. And if you
look at the probabilistic data for wind gusts, the NBM is showing
80+% chances for wind gusts above 70 mph in the Sacramento
Mountains. Our temperatures on Sunday will be cooler than we saw
on Saturday, but despite the cooler temperatures, I do think we
will see areas of blowing dust across much of lowlands. I do need
to mention that the upper level trough will also give us a chance
for some light snow in area mountains and light rain in the
lowland, mainly west of the Continental Divide.
On Monday, a second trough will swing across southern New Mexico
and continue to give us a chance for lowland rain and light
mountain snow showers. Snow levels on Monday will be lower at
around 5,000 to 6,000 feet, but snow totals will be light at less
than an inch. Monday is also looking breezy to windy, but nothing
like we will see on Sunday. Tuesday will see yet another upper
level short wave trough move across the area, which will continue
our light precipitation chances and give us breezy to windy
conditions in the afternoon. High temperatures Monday and Tuesday
will run 10 to 20 degrees below average. Then on Wednesday of next
week, we will take a break, with warmer temperatures and less
winds as an upper level short wave ridge builds across the region.
But then another short wave trough (this one looks dry) will give
us another afternoon with breezy to windy conditions on next
Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1146 AM MDT Fri Mar 22 2024
VFR conditions with unlimited ceilings are expected through this
evening. Increasing high (20 kft) cloudiness is expected
overnight and into Saturday. Winds mostly from the west southwest
under 10 knots this afternoon and light and variable in direction
overnight with speeds under 7 knots. Wind speeds will begin to
increase to 10 to 20 knots after 18Z Saturday afternoon. Long term
outlook has strong winds and blowing dust impacting the region
Sunday.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 435 AM MDT Fri Mar 22 2024
As we head further into March, we are seeing more and more breezy
to windy days. Today will be nice with not much wind and high
temperatures running a little above average. But then for weekend
and approaching upper level storm system will give us breezy winds
on Saturday and very windy conditions on Sunday. There will also
be a slight chance for lowland rain and high mountain snow showers
on Sunday, mainly west of the Rio Grande. Min RH`s in the lowlands
on Saturday will be in the teens, but fire danger ratings and fuel
moisture are still elevated so I`m not expecting any fire weather
headlines this weekend. Monday will be the coolest day of the
week, with breezy winds and min RH`s above 20%. For the middle of
next week, we will see increasing winds and decreasing min RH`s.
We could see some elevated to critical fire weather condition next
Thursday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 54 83 56 67 / 0 0 0 0
Sierra Blanca 47 78 49 64 / 0 0 0 0
Las Cruces 50 81 50 64 / 0 0 0 10
Alamogordo 48 77 46 61 / 0 0 0 10
Cloudcroft 35 52 31 36 / 0 0 0 20
Truth or Consequences 47 75 46 59 / 0 0 0 10
Silver City 45 68 36 48 / 0 0 10 40
Deming 46 79 46 61 / 0 0 0 20
Lordsburg 45 77 41 58 / 0 0 10 50
West El Paso Metro 53 80 52 65 / 0 0 0 0
Dell City 43 82 50 67 / 0 0 0 0
Fort Hancock 46 85 51 69 / 0 0 0 0
Loma Linda 48 74 47 59 / 0 0 0 0
Fabens 49 83 52 67 / 0 0 0 0
Santa Teresa 48 79 49 63 / 0 0 0 0
White Sands HQ 54 79 52 62 / 0 0 0 10
Jornada Range 47 77 47 60 / 0 0 0 10
Hatch 45 79 49 61 / 0 0 0 10
Columbus 50 79 49 62 / 0 0 0 10
Orogrande 46 77 49 61 / 0 0 0 0
Mayhill 38 66 39 50 / 0 0 0 10
Mescalero 39 64 36 48 / 0 0 0 30
Timberon 37 64 35 48 / 0 0 0 10
Winston 41 67 37 49 / 0 0 0 20
Hillsboro 45 73 41 55 / 0 0 0 20
Spaceport 45 75 44 59 / 0 0 0 10
Lake Roberts 40 68 33 46 / 0 0 20 60
Hurley 43 71 36 53 / 0 0 0 30
Cliff 45 74 39 55 / 0 0 10 50
Mule Creek 45 68 36 49 / 0 0 20 60
Faywood 45 71 39 53 / 0 0 0 30
Animas 45 77 44 59 / 0 0 10 30
Hachita 46 77 44 60 / 0 0 0 20
Antelope Wells 47 76 43 59 / 0 0 0 20
Cloverdale 48 71 40 54 / 0 0 10 30
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Wind Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for
TXZ418>424.
NM...High Wind Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for
NMZ407>411-414>417-426>429.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...04-Lundeen