Area Forecast Discussion
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Issued by NWS
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459 FXUS64 KEPZ 042017 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 217 PM MDT Sat May 4 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 215 PM MDT Sat May 4 2024 We will continue to be warm and breezy to low-end windy each afternoon. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 215 PM MDT Sat May 4 2024 A s/w trough is moving through Western NM this afternoon. For our CWA it`s pushing some high clouds through portions of the area as well as fostering some breezy afternoon winds. A boundary moved into portions of the area this morning bringing with it an increase in moisture, but it has since retreated. Only the central and eastern portions of the Sacramento Mountains remain within this boundary as denoted by cumulus clouds. We have seen a few showers develop over Northeast Otero Co, but with little consequence. A very slight chance for a shower or thunderstorm will persist through evening there. The aforementioned boundary will make another push through the CWA overnight and into the morning, reaching to roughly the Rio Grande. It will quickly retreat back to the east leaving us dry and breezy to windy once gain by tomorrow afternoon. The breeziest winds will be along and west of the Rio Grande. No wind headlines are planned, but we do have a red flag in place for our New Mexico fire zones. The weather changes little Sunday through Thursday albeit with some variations in day-to-day wind speeds. This is because we will remain at the base of a long-wave trough with short-waves passing to our north, which will keep persistent lee troughing in place to our east. Near critical to critical with occasional extreme fire danger will be the main impact. Winds nudge down a little by Thursday, and by Friday, guidance suggests moisture will try and nudge in from the east. We shall see if that holds as models have persistently forecast a moist intrusion in the 6 to 9 timeframe only for it to never really materialize. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1127 AM MDT Sat May 4 2024 VFR conditions expected through the cycle with FEW-SCT250 except SCT-BKN250 for TCS. Winds will become breezy again this afternoon with direction largely southwesterly (200-240). The exception will be TCS which will begin north to northeast (000-040) before finally switching to the southwest sometime this afternoon. Speeds will top out around 10 to 15 knots with a few gusts to 25 knots. Winds will subside after dark. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 107 PM MDT Sat May 4 2024 Daily NEAR CRITICAL to CRITICAL fire concerns expected through Wednesday. Beginning with tonight and into Sunday, an easterly push is forecast to move through at least the eastern half of the CWFA or roughly the Rio Grande. How ever far west this air mass can pass will bring good overnight recoveries with many locations above 50 percent east of this boundary. Regardless, this air mass will retreat east during the afternoon hours allowing min RH values to drop well into the single digits. Winds will be breezy to windy again, topping out 15 to 25 MPH with the strongest winds along and west of the Rio Grande. A Red Flag Warning is in place for all New Mexico zones though conditions are a bit more marginal for Zones 112 and 113, largely due to lower wind speeds. Vent rates will be excellent. For Monday onward, winds each afternoon through Wednesday will top out around 20 MPH with min RH values falling into the single digits. Thus, we will continue to see critical fire conditions for much of the area. The geography of strongest winds will shift some for Monday leaving the Gila with more marginal Red Flag Conditions. A Fire Weather Watch remains in effect. Tuesday and Wednesday will continue with critical conditions as winds top out near or over 20 MPH. There is some uncertainty on which day will feature the strongest winds between Tuesday and Wednesday. Latest data show Tuesday as a bit windier. Either way, expect more red flag warnings and fire weather watches to cover the Tuesday and Wednesday period with subsequent updates. Winds are presently forecast to decrease sufficiently for Thursday and Friday to alleviate critical weather concerns. Additionally, moisture may try and push in for Friday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 60 90 61 87 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 52 85 56 83 / 10 0 0 0 Las Cruces 53 89 54 85 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 52 86 54 83 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 40 63 42 58 / 10 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 52 85 54 83 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 48 78 45 72 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 49 88 51 83 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 49 86 50 80 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 57 87 58 84 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 52 89 52 86 / 10 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 53 91 54 89 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 52 81 54 79 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 54 90 56 88 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 52 86 53 83 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 57 87 60 83 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 50 86 52 82 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 49 88 53 84 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 54 88 55 85 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 53 84 53 81 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 42 75 48 71 / 10 0 0 0 Mescalero 43 74 46 71 / 10 0 0 0 Timberon 40 73 43 69 / 10 0 0 0 Winston 44 78 45 74 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 48 83 50 79 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 47 85 50 83 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 44 78 42 74 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 44 81 44 76 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 48 84 48 79 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 49 79 46 74 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 47 81 47 75 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 49 86 49 83 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 51 86 51 83 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 49 86 49 83 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 48 79 47 77 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening for TXZ055-056. NM...Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Sunday for NMZ110>113. Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening for NMZ110>113. && $$ FORECASTER...34-Brown