278
FXUS64 KBMX 191051
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
551 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 345 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2024

There`s a wide variety of fog and low clouds across Central Alabama
this morning, mainly in the wake of exiting rain last evening. Fog
has been spatially disorganized, and only a few obs have indicated
visibility 1/2 mile or less at times. It`s for this reason a dense
fog advisory has not been issued overnight. Either way, both fog and
low clouds should improve after sunrise today thanks to heating &
mixing.

Overall, we`re on the back side of an exiting shortwave trough this
morning. A weak low-level ridge is now moving toward the Mississippi
Valley, and we`ll start a period of drier, warmer weather today. The
exception will be some isolated showers (or a storm) east of I-65
this afternoon. There`s enough lingering tropospheric moisture &
instability across this area (despite subsidence) for some diurnal
convection. Highs this afternoon will be in the 80s, though some
upper 70s in the higher terrain is possible in the east. Tonight
will be calm and clear, perhaps with some patchy fog, with lows in
the 60s.

Upper-level flow will be split, but more amplified on Monday, as a
deep-layer ridge strengthens across the eastern CONUS. I`ve favored
warmer guidance and have highs in the mid to upper 80s advertised
with no mentionable PoPs.

40/Sizemore

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 345 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2024

A drier and warm pattern continues through much of next week as
upper level ridging builds from the western Gulf through the Ohio
River Valley and into New England. A weak front will drip into the
Tennessee Valley on Thursday, as a low rotates near Hudson Bay. The
front stalls before reaching Central Alabama, but showers and storms
could make it as far south as the I-20 corridor Thursday afternoon.
Friday, convection expands southward in response to a southern
stream shortwave riding along the surface front, and moving eastward
through the region. Given uncertainty in timing and weak shear
fields, will hold off on any mention of strong to severe storms at
this time.

14

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 547 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2024

We`re mainly dealing with IFR cigs this morning, and most vis
issues have improved (with exception of TCL). IFR conditions are
forecast to improve by ~15z, with perhaps an hour or so of MVFR
cigs, before VFR conditions return for the rest of the day. Winds
will be northerly to northwesterly at 5-8 kts this afternoon,
with isolated convection east of I-65. Probs were too low for TAF
inclusion at ASN and ANB. Clear, calm conditions are forecast
tonight, but will watch trends for patchy fog.

40/Sizemore

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Fog and low clouds remain scattered across Central Alabama this
morning. These should improve shortly after sunrise. Conditions
today will be warmer and drier overall, with northerly 20 ft winds
at 5-10 mph. Isolated showers or storms are possible this
afternoon east of I-65. We`ll remain warm and dry tomorrow with an
easterly to southeasterly 20 ft wind at around 5 mph.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     84  61  88  59 /  10   0   0   0
Anniston    83  62  88  62 /  20  10   0   0
Birmingham  85  65  88  64 /  10  10   0   0
Tuscaloosa  86  65  89  65 /   0   0   0   0
Calera      84  65  87  64 /  10   0   0   0
Auburn      81  64  85  64 /  20   0   0   0
Montgomery  84  65  87  63 /  10  10   0   0
Troy        83  64  86  62 /  10   0  10   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...40/Sizemore
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...40/Sizemore