963
FXUS64 KLUB 032004
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
304 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 301 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

The low stratus cloud deck is beginning to clear out early this
afternoon across the South Plains and far southwest Texas Panhandle.
The low clouds will continue break across the remainder of the area
this afternoon. With the early clearing, temperatures are quickly
warming into the 80s while temperatures under the cloud cover remain
much cooler in the 60s to lower 70s. Thus, there is a strong
differential heating boundary present across the area today and will
be a potential location for additional storm development. As of 2 PM
CDT, the sharpening dryline is present along a line from Seminole to
Sundown to Muleshoe and bending westward into New Mexico as lee
cyclogenesis strengthens in east southeast Colorado. Dewpoints east
of the dryline range from the upper 50s to upper 60s. Satellite
imagery shows low level moisture advecting northward with the
southeast surface winds. Thunderstorms (a few severe) have already
begun to develop east of Big Spring and just south of I-20. In
addition, towering cumulus clouds are beginning to develop along the
dryline across the South Plains. Significant instability is present
east of dryline this afternoon with SBCAPE values in excess of 3000+
J/kg and modest effective bulk shear of 30 to 40 knots, which is
capable of support strong to severe supercells. Steep midlevel lapse
rates and strong buoyancy will support very large hail up to
baseball size and damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph. A tornado or two
is possible, with the best environment across the Rolling Plains
where the differential heating boundary is present with abundant low
level moisture and east southeast low level mean flow. A few storm
splits may be possible with the right movers headed southeast,
potentially along the aforementioned pre-existing boundary. These
right moving storms would pose the greatest threat for a tornado,
especially this evening as low level shear increases. Most storms
will be moving east northeast this afternoon and evening with slower
storm motions around 10 to 20 mph, which could pose a localized
flash flooding threat. Thunderstorms should move east out of the
forecast area late this evening before Midnight.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 301 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

The severe weather threat will continue into Saturday. Winds behind
a cold front will switch to generally out of the east will bring
sufficient Gulf moisture to the area. Instability may take some time
to develop given stubborn morning cloud cover, however it is
expected to reach similar magnitudes as today, favoring the southern
South and Rolling Plains. While forcing is not overly impressive, an
upper shortwave should be more than enough to trigger potentially
severe storms during Saturday afternoon/evening hours. Main threats
include large hail, damaging winds, and locally heavy rain/flooding.
While tornadoes are unlikely, they cannot be completely be ruled
out. Much of the precipitation should move out of the forecast area
by midnight.


The active weather seen over the past several days will finally
begin to quiet down on Sunday as weak upper ridging builds over the
region. A fast moving upper trough on Monday brings a brief return
of shower and thunderstorm chances. GFS/NAM timing (moving
precipitation out of the area by late-morning) is generally favored
at this time given the relatively stronger steering flow. As such,
any severe weather threat would be limited. A mostly zonal flow
pattern aloft and westerly surface winds look to allow for warm and
dry conditions to prevail through much of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

The low stratus decks have begun to break at LBB with VFR
conditions returning, while PVW/CDS continue to linger in MVFR to
IFR conditions due to low ceilings and will likely persist through
the afternoon. Thunderstorms are possible this afternoon, but are
contingent on several variables. At this time, LBB has the highest
chances for vicinity thunder this afternoon and early evening.
However, amendments will be made as confidence increases on
location and timing of storms this afternoon and evening. Winds
will begin to veer to the southwest overnight ahead of a cold
front that will pass south through all three sites tomorrow
morning/mid-morning. Low stratus, MVFR ceilings will return again
as they fill in behind the front tomorrow morning.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...11