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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
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FXUS63 KOAX 192257
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
557 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Freeze Warning has been issued for much of the area with
  similar conditions expected Sunday morning.

- Warming temperatures next week with a chance of showers and
  thunderstorms Monday and/or Monday night, and again late in
  the week.

- Potentially impactful showers and storms return to the area
  Thursday and Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 356 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Today and Tomorrow:

Water vapor imagery this afternoon features largely zonal flow
across the CONUS, with a deep low situated north of the Great Lakes
helping to depress mid/upper heights all the way to the West Coast.
At the surface, surface moisture as been scoured out all the way
south and east to southeastern Oklahoma to western Pennsylvania by a
cold front with a very chilly airmass works farther south into the
Dakotas and southern Minnesota. Focusing on eastern Nebraska and
southwest Iowa, increased cloud cover has worked into southeast
Nebraska and southwest Iowa and despite this, temperatures have
climbed near 60 degrees for much of southeast Nebraska and
southwest Iowa. Overnight, the cooler airmass and high pressure
will continue to move south and pour sub-freezing temperatures
and steady winds near 10 mph across the area, necessitating a
Freeze Warning for the most of the area. The steady winds will
make it hard for cold air to pool effectively and result in
widespread frost formation to the south of the freeze warning,
so we`ve opted to not include one to the south.

Less gusty conditions are forecasted for Saturday as opposed to this
morning, with highs actually taking a slight hit into the low-to-mid
50s as cloud cover moves in from the west during the afternoon hours
and peak heating. Similarly cool conditions are set to repeat
themselves Saturday night, as the entire forecast area seeing
temperatures fall into the upper 20s to around 30 degrees. An area-
wide Freeze Warning will be needed with the only holdup from issuing
now being the potential for slightly warmer temperatures which
would necessitate some Frost Advisory to the south of it.

Sunday and Beyond:

By Sunday the bulk of the cooler airmass begins heading to the east,
being replaced by a building low-level thermal ridge despite
relatively steady-state mid-level heights. Temperatures for Sunday
into the bulk of next week is expected to be in the 60s to near 70,
with rain chances returning Monday afternoon into Tuesday as a
quick moving and compact shortwave dives southeast out of
Canada. This will drag a cold front with it, but the main center
of the shortwave trough will still be well north of the area,
leaving us with relatively unimpressive rainfall expectations
(though some is better than none). One thing to watch is the
potential for a more impactful system with the arrival of a
high-amplitude trough Thursday/Friday and quickly-deepening
surface cyclone. As it stands right now, there will be a broad
area of severe potential for these two days and at least some of
it will overlap eastern Nebraska and southwest Iowa. &&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Increasing cloud coverage is moving into the area from the west
at FL100 with winds out of the northwest gusting to 20 to 25 kts
at KOMA and KOFK while KLNK sees lower speeds. Winds are
expected to slowly diminish over the course of the afternoon,
with speeds overnight at just under 10 kts expected with
continued scattered high clouds, carrying over into the rest of
the morning.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 548 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

VFR conditions are expected with continued northwesterly winds
over the next 24 hours. Speeds slip this evening and become
light overnight before picking up to 8-16 knots again on
Saturday morning.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 8 AM CDT Saturday for
     NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-
     089>091.
IA...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 8 AM CDT Saturday for
     IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Petersen
AVIATION...Nicolaisen
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
