601
FNUS75 KGJT 141349
FWSGJT

Spot Forecast for Oxbow RX...BLM
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
749 AM MDT Tue May 14 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 MDT on May 14.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Critical fire weather conditions are not expected through the
period. Wetting rains remain unlikely. However scattered showers
and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and Wednesday
afternoon. Gusty outflow winds will be the main threat with these
storms, as well as small hail and lightning.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (45-55 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon.
CWR.................10 percent.
Max temperature.....68-73.
Min humidity........22-27 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 10 mph shifting to the west 15 mph
                    in the afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Good increasing to excellent in the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low.
LAL.................1 until 1300, then 2 until 1400, then 3.
Mixing height.......6500 ft AGL increasing to 10900 ft AGL in the
                    afternoon.
Transport winds.....West 18 mph.

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (50-60 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (25-35 percent).
CWR.................10 percent.
Min temperature.....37-42.
Max humidity........75-80 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 12-16 mph becoming west 5 mph
                    overnight. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms.
Smoke dispersal.....Very good decreasing to poor (3000 knot-ft)
                    overnight.
Haines Index........4 or low.
LAL.................1.
Mixing height.......7500 ft AGL decreasing to 500 ft AGL overnight.
Transport winds.....Northwest 15-20 mph becoming north 10 mph
                    overnight.

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent).
CWR.................10 percent.
Max temperature.....66-71.
Min humidity........25-30 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 10-12 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair increasing to good in the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 or very low.
LAL.................1.
Mixing height.......5100 ft AGL increasing to 8400 ft AGL in the
                    afternoon.
Transport winds.....North 11 mph.

$$
Forecaster...Lucas Boyer
Requested by...Shane Pfeiffer
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2413959.2/GJT
.DELDT 05/14/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL spfeiffer@blm.gov