Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS03 KWNS 270727
SWODY3
SPC AC 270726

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely on Friday.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
An upper trough/low should dig southward along or very near the
northern/central CA Coast Friday. Isolated lightning flashes may
occur across parts of coastal central CA through the period, as cold
mid-level temperatures aid in the development of weak MUCAPE. A
separate area of isolated thunderstorm potential, mainly related to
orographic lift, is also apparent over portions of central Rockies.

Farther east, a modified Gulf airmass should slowly advance
northward from the southern Plains into parts of the mid MS Valley
and Upper Midwest by Friday evening. The northern extent of this
low-level moisture plume is expected to remain rather shallow and
limited, with surface dewpoints no greater than the low 50s. Still,
a weak shortwave trough forecast to eject across the northern/
central Plains should aid in weak cyclogenesis across the Upper
Midwest. It could also provide sufficient lift, in tandem with a
strengthening southwesterly low-level jet, to support thunderstorm
development mainly Friday night from parts of the mid MO Valley into
the Midwest and southern Great Lakes. Even though deep-layer shear
is forecast to become strong in this time frame, convection will
probably tend to remain elevated. Generally weak MUCAPE should limit
the threat for severe-caliber hail, although small hail with the
most robust updrafts appears possible.

..Gleason.. 03/27/2024

$$


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