741
FXUS61 KAKQ 040855
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
455 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
On and off shower chances are expected Saturday and Sunday.
Summerlike conditions return to the area for next week with
daily chances of showers and storms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 310 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

-Dreary conditions across the entire forecast area today with
 extensive low-level cloud cover and scattered showers.

Yesterday`s backdoor cold front is situated just south of the FA
early this morning. High pressure over New England is wedging cool,
moist air into the Mid-Atlantic. With the front projected to stay S
of the area today, expect a dreary Saturday. Latest radar shows
scattered showers, primarily W of I-95. Chances for showers will
continue through the day, but with the best forcing/lift and
moisture remaining to the W, the highest coverage will continue to
be over the piedmont. Closer to the coast, low level moisture from
onshore flow will allow for patchy drizzle to continue through the
morning.  Minimal thunder is expected today, but could have a
few rumbles in SW counties this evening. Easterly winds will be breezy
E of I-95, especially near the coast, with gusts of 15-25mph.
Temps today will be cool across far northern portions of the
FA. Highs will struggle to even reach 60F. Far southern portions
will likely see a few breaks in the clouds and winds will have
a slight southerly component, allowing for warmer temps in the
mid 70s. The gradient between these warmer temps and the rest of
the FA will likely be sharp, so expect most will see cooler
highs in the 60s.

Showers in the far western counties increase in coverage overnight
with lower end chances extending E to the coast. The front will
start to move back N overnight, leading to stable if not slightly
increasing temps late tonight/early Sunday. Lows will be in the low-
mid 50s across the N and low 60s in the S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Continued unsettled, but warmer, Sunday.

- More humid on Monday with showers and storms areawide.

The front is expected to lift back N Sunday into Monday, shifting
the low-level flow to the S. These factors should act to scour out
the dreary conditions seen on Saturday. However, still expecting
shower redevelopment in the aftn hours as temps warm into the 70s
(and maybe as high as 80) and the residual front and a weak
disturbance aloft remains near the area. An early look at some CAMs
show that they are not particularly enthusiastic at widespread
rainfall coverage, which makes sense given a lack of any focused
areas of lift. Lows Sun night in the 60s.

Upper heights begin building back N for Monday with high temps
warming into the low 80s areawide. Despite the warmer temps, a lee
trough is expected to develop in the aftn and evening hours.
Combined w/ an approaching shortwave from the OH River Valley,
showers and storms are expected to develop over the higher terrain
in the afternoon and slide eastward into the evening. Mean LREF CAPE
shows ~750 J/KG, but shear looks to be rather weak. Therefore, the
severe threat looks relatively low, but cannot rule out a stronger
storm or two. Soundings do show a rather saturated atmospheric
column (PWATS potentially reach or exceed 1.5"), which could lead to
some heavier downpours. Dew points also increase into the mid-upper
60s so the humidity will make it feel more like early summer.
Shower/storm activity diminishes inland after midnight, but may
linger closer to the coast overnight. Lows remain mild in the mid
60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 330 PM EDT Saturday...

Key messages:

-A summer-like pattern will bring unsettled conditions and above-
normal temps.

-There is the potential for severe weather mid to late week.

An unsettled, summertime pattern takes over through the end of the
week. A ridge aloft builds in Tuesday, then weakens slightly
starting Wednesday. The GFS and ECMWF both suggest stronger 500mb
flow of up to 50 kt by Wed afternoon. Additionally, several waves of
weak shortwave energy will pass over the area. As of latest
guidance, the strongest of these looks to pass on Thursday ahead of
an UL trough dropping into the Great Lakes. A stronger system (i.e.
cold front) will then cross the area late in the week. These
features along with plentiful daytime heating/instability will allow
for daily rounds of showers/thunderstorms. Will be monitoring this
time period for severe weather given the support aloft and steep mid-
level lapse rates. The CSU Machine Learning Probabilities have
picked up on the aforementioned parameter space and suggest at least
a slight risk for severe weather on Wednesday and Thursday for the
entire area and Friday for southern/southeast areas. Highs on Tues
will be in the upper 70s on the Eastern Shore and low 80s W of the
bay. Well-above normal temps on Wed/Thurs with the potential for
widespread 90 degree highs. Fri looks a bit cooler, but still in the
80s for most. Lows generally in the mid-60s.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 145 AM EDT Saturday...

Degraded flight conditions are expected to continue through the
06z/04 TAF period as IFR to LIFR CIGs have already overspread
the terminals in the wake of a backdoor cold front (with E-NE
winds of 10-15 kt with gusts to 20 kt). IFR/LIFR CIGs are
expected through much of the night with perhaps some
improvement on Sat (to 1000-2000 ft) with continued onshore
flow. In terms of precipitation, scattered showers have spread
over western portions of the area, and Richmond will likely see
brief periods of light rain. Areas of drizzle are also possible
through Sat AM. Shower chances continue on Saturday (highest
PoPs at RIC w/ lesser chances near the coast).

Outlook...Sub-VFR conditions expected at times through the
weekend and even into Monday due to an unsettled weather
pattern. Scattered showers and tstms are expected on both Sunday
and Monday. A warmer, more summerlike pattern returns by
Tuesday with chances for storms each afternoon/evening.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 430 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for the Chesapeake Bay
  and lower James River through late tonight/early Sunday
  morning.

- Small Craft Advisories remain in effect from Parramore Island
  S to the VA/NC for lingering seas to 5 ft.


With yesterday`s backdoor cold front now well S of the local
area, winds have generally dropped off to 10-15 kt with gusts
to 15-20 kt early this morning. However, winds are expected to
increase a bit later today through tonight as low pressure lifts
NE into the Great Lakes with the sfc high sliding off the coast
of northern New England into Atlantic Canada. Will keep the
SCAs going for the Bay/lower James for E winds increasing to
15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. On the ocean, have extended SCAs
through 10 am for now for the zones between Parramore Island and
the VA- NC border. This is where seas are still ~5ft, with 3-4
ft seas elsewhere. Depending on the increase in winds later
today, these headlines may need an extension.

The front lifts back N on Sunday, shifting winds to the SE/SSE.
SSW winds return for Monday through the middle of next week
(but likely remain sub-SCA). Southerly flow looks as though it
will persist through most of next week with the next backdoor
cold front possible some time Friday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 440 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Upgraded the northern Neck to a Coastal Flood Advisory
  through Sunday for widespread minor flooding.

- Coastal Flood Statements remain in effect for the bayside of
  the Maryland eastern shore, with an upgrade to a Coastal Flood
  Advisory likely for additional rises late Sunday into Monday
  morning.

Tidal departures early this morning average around +1.5 ft
across the Bay and tidal rivers. A strong flood tidal current
Fri aftn/evening has led to increasing departures into the
mid/upper Bay. The pattern of elevated E winds shifting to the
ESE to SE by tonight favors going above ETSS guidance across the
northern Neck. As such, a Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect in
this area for the next 3 high tides through Sunday aftn (an
extension through Monday morning will likely be needed). Have
maintained a Coastal Flood Statement for the bayside of the MD
eastern shore to cover nuisance flooding for the next 2 high
tide cycles. Water levels further increase here later Sunday
into early Monday with an upgrade to a Coastal Flood Advisory
likely as SSE winds will tend to focus the highest departures
here by that time. A Coastal Flood Statement is in effect for
locations on the west shore of the middle Bay to cover nuisance
flooding for the next 2 high tide cycles (this may need to be
extended as well). It still appears that other than locally
moderate flooding at Bishops Head, this event will peak in minor
flood category with the high tide cycle Sunday aftn into early
Monday.



&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM EDT Sunday for VAZ075>078.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ630>632-634.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ638.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for ANZ654-
     656.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SW
NEAR TERM...AM
SHORT TERM...AM/SW
LONG TERM...AM
AVIATION...AM/ERI
MARINE...LKB/JAO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ