471
FXUS61 KALY 301738
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
138 PM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
With a frontal system near the region, showers and
thunderstorms are expected through the late evening hours, with some
of the storms containing heavy downpours and small hail.  Behind
this system, mainly dry and seasonable weather is expected for
Wednesday and Thursday.  Continued comfortable conditions are
expected for Friday into the weekend, although there will be a
chance for some showers at some point over the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 131 PM EDT...A stalled boundary remains draped across
Upstate New York. Most of our area remains on the cooler
northeastern side of the boundary, although western areas are
starting to break out in the warmer and more humid air mass. SPC
mesoanalysis shows SBCAPE around 1000 J/kg in CNY, although
little to no CAPE is in place over eastern NY, as a stable air
mass in place at low levels, with surface temps only in the 50s
and 60s and dewpoints in the 50s.

There had been some elevated convection this morning that moved
across northern areas, but it has been dry and quiet over the
last few hours. Radar imagery shows some isolated showers
starting to develop over CNY, and these will continue to grow
and develop and eventually spread eastward for later this
afternoon and into the early evening hours. CAMs suggest this
activity will organize into clusters or a broken line as it
heads eastward. The surface boundary and wave of low pressure
moving along the front will generally stay south of most of the
area, so most of the area should stay in the more stable marine
air. Because of this, the expectation is that these storms will
weaken as they get into our area. We still anticipate some
heavier downpours, lightning and even some small hail, but gusty
winds aren`t expected due to the stable low levels. Far western
areas (western Adirondacks, Mohawk Valley, Schoharie County and
the eastern Catskills) have a low- end chance for some brief
gusty winds and larger hail if they are on the edge of the more
unstable air mass, but this is still a little uncertain and more
of an isolated threat.

Temps have been variable today and will continue to be this
afternoon. Western areas will remain the warmer, with highs in
the low 70s. Temps in the Capital Region have spiked close to 70
already, even with the clouds around. Meanwhile, western New
England will be cooler (mainly in the 60s, with some 50s in the
highest terrain). While some breaks are possible over the next
few hours (mainly western areas), most areas will wind up being
mostly cloudy through the rest of the day.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Showers and thunderstorms linger through tonight with
decreasing coverage through the night. There could be just some
isolated showers early Wednesday morning, but the weak cold
advection, becoming neutral to weak warm advection by Wednesday
evening, and lingering upper energy and moisture will result in
a very slow break up of the clouds through the day Wednesday.
Highs Wednesday in the 60s to near 70.

Leading edge of warm advection and then passage of another weak
cold front may support an isolated shower in northern areas to
southern VT Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Front exits
Thursday morning with breezy northwest winds by afternoon and
better clearing for at least some sunshine. Highs Thursday in
the mid 60s to lower 70s. Remaining dry Thursday night with lows
by early Friday morning in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Long term period begins at 12z Friday with an upper ridge axis over
western NY. On the downstream side of the ridge, high pressure will
be located to our northeast. Subsidence from these features will
keep us dry Friday. Highs will be in the 60s and 70s from the
Hudson Valley westward, but in western New England low-level
east/southeast flow around the surface high will help to keep
temperatures slightly cooler with highs in the 50s (terrain) to 60s
(lower elevations). Friday night remains dry with lows mainly in the
40s.

For the weekend, An surface low becomes vertically stacked in south-
central Canada, and its occluded front slowly tracks towards our
region. There is some uncertainty regarding the timing of the front,
but with the front running into the upper ridge and the best upper
forcing well west of our region, will continue to lean towards a
slower solution. If the slower solution does indeed verify, much of
the day Saturday may be dry, especially east of the Hudson Valley.
Chances for showers and possibly a rumble of thunder should increase
Saturday night and Sunday. Temperatures will be cooler over the
weekend, with highs mainly in the 50s and 60s during the day and
overnight lows in the 40s.

For the beginning of next week, things look to dry out Monday as a
ridge of high pressure builds in from the west. With more sun,
temperatures will be warmer, possibly climbing into the 70s again
for our valley areas. Another warm front may approach our region
from the southwest Tuesday, which could bring some additional shower
chances. FOr day 8-14, the CPC is expecting near to slightly above
normal temperatures and above normal precip.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 18z/Wed...Morning clouds have slowly begun to break up
and this has resulted or will soon result in a trend to VFR
conditions this afternoon. Thereafter, another round of showers
and embedded thunderstorms will cross the TAF sites later this
afternoon into tonight where some reductions to IFR/MVFR will be
possible. Best thunder chances are at KALB with storms expected
to be in a weakening trend when approaching KPSF/KPOU. Best
thunder chances remain south of KGFL. Precipitation tapers off
later this evening into the overnight as low-level stratus may
develop at all sites with IFR/MVFR cigs possible. Some
improvement of cigs is possible toward the end of the TAF
period.

Wind will be east to southeasterly at around 10 kt through this
afternoon with a few higher gusts possible at KALB/KPSF. Wind
then becomes variable at 5 kt or less tonight through tomorrow
morning.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Showers and thunderstorms north of I-90 overnight have produced
a half inch to inch of rain with very localized amounts up to 2
inches. More showers and thunderstorms are expected by later in
the day over the entire area as a frontal boundary approaches
from the west.

The low level flow out of the south will bring in plenty of
moisture into the region ahead of the boundary, although
dewpoints and PWATs will not be overly excessive for this time
of year. Still, the frontal boundary should be strong enough to
allow for a fairly widespread areas of showers and
thunderstorms.

Some of these showers and thunderstorms may contain heavy
downpours, which could lead to ponding of water in urban or low
lying areas. WPC has placed much of the region within a Marginal
Risk for Excessive Rainfall during this period. Overall,
rainfall amounts will generally be under an inch and no flooding
of main stem rivers is expected.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Frugis
NEAR TERM...Frugis
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...Main
AVIATION...Rathbun
HYDROLOGY...NAS