Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
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101 FXUS64 KAMA 032322 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 622 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM ... (This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 249 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Morning clouds have begun to clear out, with partly cloudy skies being observed for the northern and western Panhandles, while the southeastern TX Panhandle remains cloudy. Starting to see on satellite a cumulus field trying to grow vertically in eastern New Mexico near Tucumcari, and to a lesser extent the Texas Panhandle, suggesting some instability that is still inhibited by a cap. With much of the afternoon left, it`s becoming more plausible that the cap could be breached in eastern New Mexico and the western Panhandles and at least a few thunderstorms will be able to develop later as the dryline mixes east. If so, MLCAPE values between 1000- 2000 J/kg are possible in the western Panhandles along with 30-40 kts effective shear, suggesting any thunderstorm will be capable of producing large hail and damaging winds. A tornado can`t be ruled out in the western Panhandles later in the afternoon through the early evening, but seems unlikely at this time. It`s possible that any thunderstorm that can develop would begin to weaken as it moves into a more stable airmass in the central Texas Panhandle this evening. There is a signal that additional thunderstorms will be able to develop in the Oklahoma Panhandle this evening but the signal is rather weak among the CAMs. Tonight, a squall line is expected to develop in western Kansas along a cold front. Current expectation is that it will produce an outflow boundary that advances ahead and chokes off the access to unstable air and weakens before it reaches the Oklahoma Panhandle. However, this cold front will make its way through the Panhandles tonight, and it`s possible that a moderately strong and moist southerly LLJ will ascend above the cold front and help develop showers and thunderstorms. If so, there may be enough elevated instability for the threat of overnight large hail. With that said, the CAMs are not at all excited about the potential for rain tonight while the global models are. NBM seems to be siding with the global models by giving 50-80% PoPs. Feel as though this is too aggressive right now given CAM agreement and underwhelming upper-level support, thus have decreased PoPs to generally 20-50% tonight. Tomorrow, the Panhandles will be behind the cold front and the surface winds turn from easterly to southeasterly. Clouds should once again be prevalent across the area but perhaps may break up some in the afternoon. A weak shortwave trough will approach western Texas in the afternoon, but it appears the better forcing for ascent and moisture will be located to the south of the Panhandles. There is a chance that some rain and embedded thunder will make its way up into the southern Texas Panhandle as a result of some more significant thunderstorm activity outside of the CWA, but for now, it doesn`t look to be a widespread rain event or much of a beneficial rain event. Once again, NBM is quite aggressive with the PoPs tomorrow afternoon through tomorrow night. Have opted to decrease the rain chances in general, especially in the northern Panhandles tomorrow evening. Still feel PoPs are still too high tomorrow night but will leave it for now. Vanden Bosch && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 249 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Lingering slight chance to chance pops Sunday morning will quickly diminish from west to east by afternoon as the upper level shortwave trof moves east of the region. Attention then turns to a much stronger upper level low pressure storm system slated to move across the central and northern Rockies and adjacent plains Monday into Tuesday. This suggested path offered by the latest short and medium range models indicates more of a dry, windy, and warm scenario for most of the OK and TX Panhandles. The far eastern zones may retain just enough moisture for a long enough time frame ahead of the eastward moving dryline Monday morning into the afternoon hours to warrant a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms. NBM pop values for that area look reasonable and were included in the grids. Winds may approach or exceed advisory criteria across parts of the western and central sections on Monday due to the rather steep pressure gradient. Dry weather and above normal temperatures are expected Tuesday and Wednesday, followed by passage of another cold front Wednesday night which will lead to cooler temperatures on Thursday. Medium range models and associated ensembles are in reasonable agreement and were accepted. 02 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 610 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 MVFR cigs still persist at Amarillo this afternoon, these should briefly scatter ahead of a approaching cold front. Currently ahead of a cold front the winds are ESE and gusty mainly in the 20s kt range to low 30s kt. A few thunderstorms are present in this environment ahead of the cold front with KGUY and KDHT being the more likely stations to see them on station. These storms can become severe with large hail and damaging gusty winds. The cold front is expected to arrive in the northern panhandles around midnight and then rapidly push through. This would shift the winds to the N with gusts likely increasing in strength. Low clouds of MVFR to IFR are likely to occur post passage of the cold front. For KGUY and the OK panhandle there will be a chance for thunderstorm to occur along the cold front. These thunderstorm are unlikely to persist into the TX panhandle. For Saturday afternoon the clouds will likely scatter out with VFR conditions returning. The winds will also likely weaken and cease gusting while shifting to become more easterly. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 249 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Depending on how much rain falls through the weekend and where such rainfall occurs will dictate any fire weather concerns early next week. Based on latest numerical weather model guidance and rainfall forecasts, elevated to critical fire weather conditions may develop across much of the western and central sections of the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles on Monday and Tuesday due to strong winds and low relative humidity values along with the possibility of dry fuels and little greenup in locations that have not had much rain during the past several weeks. 02 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 50 68 51 74 / 30 30 60 20 Beaver OK 48 70 49 75 / 50 20 40 30 Boise City OK 42 65 44 76 / 40 10 20 20 Borger TX 51 72 52 78 / 20 30 50 20 Boys Ranch TX 49 71 50 80 / 20 20 50 20 Canyon TX 49 69 51 75 / 30 30 60 20 Clarendon TX 53 68 53 72 / 30 40 60 30 Dalhart TX 44 68 45 76 / 20 10 40 20 Guymon OK 45 68 47 75 / 40 10 30 20 Hereford TX 50 69 51 77 / 20 30 60 20 Lipscomb TX 51 69 51 75 / 40 30 60 30 Pampa TX 51 68 51 74 / 20 30 60 30 Shamrock TX 54 69 53 73 / 40 40 60 40 Wellington TX 55 71 54 73 / 40 50 60 40 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...52 LONG TERM....02 AVIATION...98