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000
FXUS63 KAPX 220345
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1145 PM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Elevated fire danger Monday.

- Showers return Monday night into early Tuesday. Isolated
  thunderstorm chances Tuesday afternoon.

- Mild temperatures return late week into next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Pattern Forecast: A moisture starved cold front will wash out
across the region early tonight. Surface high pressure then builds
northeastward into the area late tonight then heads off to the
east Monday.

Forecast Details: Any instability driven clouds will diminish
this evening while winds diminish overnight. This will leave
mainly clear skies and light winds allowing for cold
overnight temperatures. Lows tonight ranging from the low 20s to
the low 30s. Skies start off mostly sunny Monday but high clouds
will be on the increase during the afternoon. Southwest winds
will become gusty as the surface pressure gradient tightens up
as high pressure moves off to our east and low pressure
approaches from the west. In addition, there will be warm air
advection through the day which will make for noticeably warmer
temperatures. Highs will range from the upper 50s north to the
mid 60s south.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Pattern Forecast: At the start of the period Monday night, focus
revolves around northern stream mid-upper level wave and attendant
area of surface low pressure progged to slide across the upper MS
Valley into the western Great Lakes. This system is expected to
bring periods of more active weather back to the Northwoods before
heights rise and surface high pressure brings a return of quiet
weather Wednesday through Friday. Another round of active weather
looks increasingly likely by next weekend.

Forecast Details: Mid-level wave and attendant surface low approach
from the northwest Monday night. A couple rounds of showers expected
with this system -- initially for the second half of Monday night
into early Tuesday and again later Tuesday into Tuesday evening in
advance of the system`s cold front. Perhaps a couple of
thunderstorms as well Tuesday afternoon dependent on any midday
clearing to muster marginal instability. Assuming we go develop at
least skinny CAPE, a couple of stronger/gustier storms not out of
the question steep lapse rates and dry mid-levels. Beyond the cold
front Tuesday evening, low probabilities exist for a bit of light
snow to mix in as any lingering precip exits.

A drying trend expected Wednesday through at least midday Friday.
Cool temps Wednesday, but bouncing back into the 50s and low 60s for
the end of the week. Next weather-maker sets its sights on northern
Michigan later Friday into the weekend as low pressure encroaches
from the southwest. Lots of details to sort out over the next
several days, but a return to more active weather looks pretty
likely.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Low level ridge axis will slide over Michigan overnight...and
will then shift east of our state on Monday. Solid VFR
conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Increasing
chances of rain ahead of our next low pressure system should
hold off until after 06Z Tuesday. Light/variable overnight will
become SW at 15 to 25 kts on Monday.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJS
LONG TERM...MJG
AVIATION...MLR