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000
AXNT20 KNHC 240458
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Wed Apr 24 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0457 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central Atlantic Significant Swell:
A 1011 mb low at the central Atlantic currently near
27N34W will slowly drift southwestward through Thu. Large swell
and wind waves produced by near gale force winds on Tuesday
continue to affect the area north of 25.5N between 35W and 40W.
Latest scatterometer data revealed that northerly winds have
decrease to fresh to strong speeds north and northwest of the
low center, while recent altimeter data depicted seas of 13 ft
west of the low.  This area of swell should gradually continue
to shrink in coverage through Thu as the low continues to
weaken. Scattered showers are present near and up to 100 nm
northeast and southeast of the low center. Please read the
latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane
Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
details.

Strong Thunderstorms With Heavy Rainfall in Hispaniola:
A persistent surface trough extending southwestward from 27N61W
to western side of Puerto Rico is providing moist southerly flow
across Hispaniola. Together with a pronounced mid to upper-level
trough in the vicinity, strong thunderstorms are likely during
the afternoon and early evening hours over and near Hispaniola
on Wed and Thu. These thunderstorms are capable of producing
heavy downpours, increasing the chance for flash flooding,
especially in hilly terrains and low-lying areas. Please refer
to the local weather service offices for more details on this
event.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 8N13W, then extends
southwestward to 02N19W. An ITCZ continues from 02N19W to
1.5N46W. Scattered moderate convection is noted near both
features from the Equator to 06N between 15W and 33W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge reaches southwestward from northern Florida to
the central Gulf. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds and seas to 3
to 5 ft are seen near the Yucatan Peninsula and at the eastern
Bay of Campeche. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and 2 to 4 ft
seas are evident across the western Gulf, including the western
Bay of Campeche. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds and seas of 3
to 6 ft are noted at the Florida Straits. Mainly gentle winds
with 1 to 3 ft seas prevail for the remainder of the Gulf.

For the forecast, high pressure over the N Gulf is supporting
mainly gentle to moderate E winds in the NE half of the Gulf,
and moderate to fresh SE winds in the SW half of the Gulf
through Thu. The pressure gradient will tighten over the Gulf
starting on Fri, increasing E to SE winds to fresh to strong
across the whole basin through Sun. Meanwhile, winds will pulse
to fresh to strong W of the Yucatan each evening.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section about strong
thunderstorms and potential heavy rainfall across Hispaniola.

A surface trough extends from the eastern Pacific to northern
Colombia. This trough is generating scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms over eastern Panama and nearby waters.
Otherwise, a trade-wind pattern continues across much of the
basin. Fresh with locally strong NE winds and seas of 4 to 5 ft
are found at the south-central basin and near the Windward
Passage. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds and 3 to 5 ft seas
dominate the rest of the southern basin, including the ABC
Islands. Light to gentle winds with seas at 2 to 4 ft are
present south of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, and near the Cayman
Islands. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds and 3 to 5 ft seas
prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea, including the Gulf of
Honduras.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate trades are N of 15N, except
fresh near the Windward Passage and in the Lee of far eastern
Cuba, with moderate to fresh trades S of 15N, locally strong
near Colombia. High pressure will build N of the area supporting
fresh to locally strong winds just N of Colombia, through the
Windward Passage, and in the lee of Cuba Wed and Thu. Looking
ahead, further building of the high on starting on Fri will also
force fresh to strong trades in the Gulf of Honduras and just S
of Hispaniola through the weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section about Significant Swell
in the Central Atlantic.

A cold front extends from 31N62W to 24N72W, then continues as a
dissipating stationary front to near the N-central coast of
Cuba. A persistent surface trough runs from 27N61W to the
western side of Puerto Rico. The interaction between this
surface trough and a pronounced mid to upper-level trough in the
vicinity, is producing isolated moderate convection from 23N to
27N between 61W and 65W. Another surface trough stretches south-
southwestward from well south of the Azores across 31N28.5W to
14N41W. Scattered moderate convection is depicted north of 26N
between 24W and 29W.

Other than the 1011 mb low mentioned in the Special Features
section, moderate to fresh NNE to ENE winds with 6 to 11 ft seas
are found north of 20N between 40W and 50W. To the west, gentle
to moderate with locally fresh NE to SE winds and seas at 6 to 9
ft are evident north of 20N between 50W and the Florida-Georgia
coast. For the eastern Atlantic north of 20N between 20W and
32W, gentle to moderate E to SE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are
noted. Near the Canary Islands, mostly moderate NNE winds and 2
to 5 ft seas exist north of 20N between the northwest Africa
coast and 20W. Near the Cabo Verde Islands, gentle N to NE winds
and seas at 3 to 5 ft are present from 05N to 20N between the
central Africa coast and 35W. For tropical Atlantic from 05N to
20N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles, moderate to fresh NE to
E winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are found. Light to gentle winds and
seas of 5 to 7 ft in mixed moderate swells prevail for the rest
of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned front will
reach from 31N59W to the Turks and Caicos Islands Wed evening
where it will stall and dissipate to a remnant trough.
Associated northerly swell of 8 ft or greater will subside by
Wed evening. Tranquil conditions are forecast Thu and Thu night.
Looking ahead, a new cold front will merge with the trough and
progress eastward, reaching 31N57W to E Cuba on Sat morning, and
then 25N55W to Hispaniola on Sun morning. Swell will push S of
31N with the front, resulting in building seas. A strengthening
Bermuda High should cause widespread fresh to strong N to E
winds W of the front beginning Fri evening through Sun night.

$$
KRV