000
AXNT20 KNHC 191737
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Fri Apr 19 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1630 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough exits western Africa along the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 12N16.5W and extends offshore to near 11N20W.
The Atlantic ITCZ extends southwestward from 06N23W to 00N43W to
the coast of Brazil near 01N50W. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is within 120 nm of the west African coast between 08W
and 13.5W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed
near the ITCZ south of 03.5N between 27W and 49W, and also south
of 14N between 55W and 59W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak western Atlantic surface ridge extends westward across
Florida to a 1019 mb high in the northeast Gulf near 29N85W to NE
Texas. This pattern is producing gentle to moderate E to SE winds
across much of the basin this morning, except for fresh SE winds
across NW portions. Seas are 3 to 6 ft across this area. Light to
gentle winds and 1 to 3 ft seas are present at the northeastern
and east-central Gulf. Widely scattered mainly light showers
persist across the NW waters.

For the forecast, the high pressure ridge extending across the
basin will prevail through Sat, with gentle to moderate winds in
the NE half of the basin, and moderate to fresh in the SW half of
the basin. Winds will pulse from fresh to strong in the evenings
NW of the Yucatan Peninsula through at least Sat evening. A cold
front is forecast to move into the NW Gulf late Sat night into
early Sun, stalling and dissipating near 24N early next week.
Fresh to locally strong winds and building seas will follow the
front through Sun night. High pressure will again dominate the
basin by Tue.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1019 mb sub-tropical high persists near 28N72W, and is
promoting a weakened trade wind flow across the basin. Fresh NE to
E winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are noted offshore of Colombia,
near the Windward Passage, Cayman Islands, and just south of the
Dominican Republic. Moderate to locally fresh ENE to E winds and 3
to 5 ft seas are present at the central basin and Gulf of
Honduras. Gentle to moderate NNE to E winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft
prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Basin. Patchy clouds and
scattered showers extends from the SW portions of Hispaniola to
the Gulf of Honduras. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are also
approaching the Windward Islands.

For the forecast, weak high pressure located between Bermuda and
the Bahamas will support fresh to locally strong trade winds in
the lee of Cuba, Windward Passage, and south of the Dominican
Republic at night during the next few days. These winds will
gradually diminish this weekend into early next week as a cold
front moves across the western Atlantic and the pressure gradient
relaxes. A locally tight pressure gradient will support pulsing
fresh to locally strong winds near northern Colombia at night. A
surface trough approaching the Windward Islands is accompanied by
scattered showers and gusty winds, and will move across the
islands into the SE Caribbean tonight through Sun.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough bisects high pressure across the Atlantic,
extending from near 28N46W southwestward to just northeast of the
Leeward Islands near 19N60W. This surface trough continues to be
supported by a deep-layered upper trough across the same area,
and is enhancing scattered moderate convection within 180 nm E of
the surface trough. Another surface trough from 24N60W to 23N68W
is triggering similar convection from 24N to 27.5N between 57W and
62W. West of the trough, 1019 mb high pressure is centered near
28N72W and is generally producing light to gentle anticyclonic
flow between the trough and Florida. Seas there are 3 to 5 ft.

E of the surface trough, 1022 mb high pressure near 31N31W anchors
the eastern Atlantic ridge. The pressure gradient between the
ridge and lower pressure along the ITCZ is producing moderate to
locally fresh NE to E trade winds across the Atlantic between the
Cabo Verdes and the Lesser Antilles, mainly south of 20N. Seas
here are 5 to 7 ft. Moderate NNE winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft are
evident from 12N to 24N between the central Africa coast and 25W.
satellite imagery this morning shows Saharan air dominating the
tropical Atlantic east of 55W, with fair and hazy skies. Just
ahead of the leading edge of the Saharan air, scattered convection
is occurring along a surface trough along 59W and south of 14N.
This trough and associated weather are expected to move across the
Windward Islands late today through tonight.

For the forecast W of 55W, the trough from NE of the Leeward into
the central Atlantic will shift ENE into the weekend. High pressure
will remain across the area between the Bahamas and Bermuda through
Sun, with mostly gentle to moderate winds across the area. A cold
front will move into the waters off northeastern Florida Sun
night into Mon, reaching from near 31N71W to the NW Bahamas by
early Tue, and from near 31N70W to near 26N75W by late Tue night.
Mostly fresh southerly winds are expected ahead of the front,
with locally strong winds near 31N along with building seas.
Moderate to fresh northwest to north winds are expected behind the
front. Winds will freshen over the southeastern waters next week
as the pressure gradient tightens there leading to building seas.
Mostly slight to moderate seas will prevail elsewhere.

$$
Stripling