Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KBGM 261748
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
148 PM EDT Tue Mar 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Mainly dry, quiet and mild weather continues across the region
today. A frontal system will bring clouds and showers to the
area tonight through Thursday morning. Dry and sunny conditions
expected for Friday, but it will be breezy and cool. The
upcoming weekend features seasonable temperatures with a chance
for scattered rain showers on Saturday, with dry and mostly
sunny weather returning on Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
835 AM Update...

METSAT is showing overcast cirrostratus across much of the CWA
and also marine layer stratus is quickly pushing in from the
southeast into Poconos. Increased cloud cover with this update
through the entire day today, as there might be some sun trying
to sneak through the cirrostratus layer, however it should be a
thick enough layer to filter out that sunshine quite a bit. May
also need to adjust high temperatures for this afternoon, but
will address this with the next update.

650 AM Update

No significant changes at this time. It is starting off milder
this morning as high clouds have overspread the region. The
Marine layer of lower clouds is on schedule moving into the
southern Catskills and parts of NE PA at this time.

315 AM Update

Our area will be in between weather systems much of the day
today. There are high clouds gradually spreading in from the
west, with a marine layer and low level stratus clouds impeding
from the east. The low clouds are forecast to impact mainly the
Poconos east of the Wyoming valley, and southern Catskills this
morning into the early afternoon hours. Eventually these lower
level clouds may spread further NW toward the Twin Tiers and
portions of Central NY by late afternoon and evening. The high
cirrus clouds remain thin this morning, with filtered sunshine
expected, but gradually thicken up later in the afternoon. The
overall story for today will be increasing clouds, slightly
breezy southeast winds at 8-15 mph, but mild temperatures are
forecast well into the 50s for most locations.

By evening some light rain showers start to spread into the region
from the west along an occluded frontal boundary. Scattered
rain showers continue overnight, with the highest PoPs and QPF
across Central NY where up to two-tenths of an inch or rain
could fall. It will be mild overnight, with the breezy southeast
winds continuing...overnight lows only dip down into the upper
30s to lower 40s over the region.

There is then some uncertainty in forecast specifics during the day
on Wednesday. There are differences in the amount and timing of rain
in the latest hi-res CAMs (HRRR, RAP, 3km NAM). Used a blend of the
all of these and the latest NBM to place PoPs and QPF as best as
possible. Right now, it looks like there will be some dry time, and
also periods of rain...again specific hours for this remains uncertain.
The highest chances for rain appear to be along and east of the
I-81 corridor where likely PoPs were continued in the forecast.
Back to the west, it fades to just chance PoPs over the Finger
Lakes and Central Southern Tier. QPF amounts are again ranging
from a few hundreths to perhaps two-tenths of an inch over the
Catskills/Poconos during the day. With the breaks in the
rainfall and perhaps even a few, occasional breaks in the
overcast, temperatures still warm up into the mid-50s to lower
60s...this is about 5 to 10 degrees above average.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
305 AM Update...

A cold front will slowly push through the region Wednesday night and
Thursday. This front will bring rain showers to the region. During
the overnight hours Wednesday night, snow could mix in with rain in
the higher elevations where temperatures will be cooler. Southerly
flow will advect moisture northward along the coast Thursday. As a
result, chances for showers will increase across NEPA, the
Catskills, and far eastern portions of the Southern Tier. There is
some uncertainty with where the moisture axis sets up. The GFS and
NAM brings the moisture axis into our region, but the ECMWF is
much farther east with it. For this update, a blend of the
previous forecast, NBM, and WPC guidance was used for QPF
amounts. Showers move out Thursday night, though there is a low
chance that some lingering showers could result in a dusting of
snow in the higher elevations of the Catskills.

Temperatures Wednesday night will range form the low 30s to mid 40s
with the warmest temps being in NEPA. Highs on Thursday will only be
in the 40s. Then with cooler air filling in behind the front, temps
fall below freezing for most of the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
305 AM Update...

The end of the week will be quiet as high pressure will be present.
A weak system will pass southwest of the region this weekend, but
will be close enough for some spotty showers, mainly late Saturday
and into the overnight hours. Rain will be the main ptype, but
there may also be rain/snow mix, or just snow during the
overnight hours. While some guidance has a lingering shower or
two early Sunday, conditions will dry out as high pressure takes
back control. The start of next week will also be quiet, though
the next system may be knocking on our door by late Monday.
There are timing differences between model guidance with this
system, so NBM guidance was favored for now. Highs this period
will be in the 40s and 50s with Monday looking to be the warmest
day during this period. Overnight temperatures will be 20s and
30s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

Southeast flow push marine layer northward into NE PA and
Southern Tier, with at least MVFR ceilings into AVP and BGM
later this evening through tonight with drizzle and fog also
possible. Confidence is lower on IFR ceilings and vis
restrictions, but IFR will be possible through the overnight
hours at times for AVP and BGM. Meanwhile, a frontal system
pushing in from the west will bring rain showers and MVFR
ceilings to all other sites through the overnight hours and into
Wednesday morning. Some improvement can be expected through the
day tomorrow from the west, however another front will push in
tomorrow afternoon towards the end of the TAF period, bringing
more rain showers across NE PA and into the Southern Tier.


Outlook...

Wednesday afternoon & Wednesday night...Occasional restrictions
possible in rain showers.

Thursday...Mainly VFR west. Restrictions possible in rain/mist
for AVP, BGM and perhaps RME. (Low to moderate confidence)

Friday...VFR (High confidence)

Saturday...Mainly VFR (Moderate confidence)

Saturday night through Sunday...A weak clipper system could
bring rain showers and associated restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJM
NEAR TERM...MPK/MJM
SHORT TERM...BTL/KL
LONG TERM...BTL
AVIATION...MPK


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.