Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
000
FXUS64 KBMX 261659
AFDBMX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1159 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024
...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 1156 AM CDT TUE MAR 26 2024
The low-end severe threat ended early this morning with the
diminishment of instability. A broken corridor of light to moderate
rainfall is focused mainly along and east of I-65 at this hour. The
cold front extends north to south through western Mississippi based
on sfc obs and visible satellite imagery showing where the drier,
post-frontal air is based on the lack of cloud cover over the
ArkLaTex. That drier air will reach western portions of Central
Alabama this afternoon as the rain continues to move east into
Georgia. Decreasing cloud cover and more sun will allow temperatures
to rise into the lower 70s in the west while mid 60s are expected in
the east. A broad presence of upper-level troughing will remain to
our west over the Central CONUS, but low-level winds will become
northwesterly allowing for cooler air to move into Central AL
overnight. Lows will be in the 40s for most of the area with some
readings in the lower 50s in the southeast. Some patchy fog may
briefly develop in the valley areas tomorrow morning. Meanwhile, an
increasing presence of mid-level clouds will round the base of the
trough tomorrow with filtered sun resulting in mild to warm
conditions. Highs will range from the mid 60s northwest to mid/upper
70s southeast.
86/Martin
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 331 AM CDT TUE MAR 26 2024
A mid- to upper-level trough will swing through the eastern CONUS
Thursday with high pressure moving east across the Mississippi
Valley. Thus, Thursday will be the coolest day of the long-term
period with highs in the 60s and 70s. Thereafter, a broad ridge is
forecast to develop across the central and eastern CONUS. We`ll be
on a warming trend as a result, with highs in the 70s on Friday,
approaching 80 on Saturday, and the 80s for early next week. We`ll
remain dry for much of this period meaning this will be some of the
best weekend weather we`ve had in a while. A front is progged to
move toward the Tennessee Valley on Tuesday, bring some rain/storm
chances.
40/Sizemore
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1156 AM CDT TUE MAR 26 2024
A broken corridor of SHRA continues to progress across the area this
afternoon, mainly at ANB/ASN/MGM/TOI at this point. This activity
will end over the next few hours as aviation conditions improve
through the second half of this period. Some patchy fog may develop
at ASN/ANB ~08Z, but confidence is low at this time. VFR ceilings
are expected at all terminals by mid afternoon as the rain moves
into Georgia and cloud cover decreases. Winds will become
northwesterly at 5 to 8 kts by tomorrow morning as the cold front
moves east of the area.
86/Martin
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
An area of rain and thunderstorms will continue eastward today,
with rainfall ending from west to east through the day.
Southeasterly 20ft winds remain elevated this morning ahead of the
area of rainfall, at 15-20mph. 20ft winds diminish through the
day on Tuesday, as the rain ends, with variability in the
direction. The cold front arrives tonight, with winds becoming
northwesterly at 5-8mph.
Drier air arrives by Wednesday, with minimum RH values in the 35
to 45 percent range Wednesday afternoon. Thursday, 20ft winds
increase from the north at 9-12mph, with minimum RH values below
30 percent.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden 65 41 68 43 / 100 0 0 10
Anniston 66 44 70 45 / 100 0 0 10
Birmingham 68 45 68 44 / 90 0 0 10
Tuscaloosa 71 44 69 44 / 60 0 0 0
Calera 67 45 69 45 / 90 0 0 10
Auburn 65 49 73 48 / 90 10 0 20
Montgomery 69 47 73 47 / 90 0 0 10
Troy 68 49 75 48 / 90 0 0 20
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...86/Martin
LONG TERM....40
AVIATION...86/Martin