Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
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680 FXUS64 KBRO 070530 AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1230 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday night) Issued at 224 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024 The big headline for the short term forecast will be the above normal temperatures and the possibility of a heat advisory for tomorrow during the afternoon. With zonal flow aloft and southeasterly winds at the surface allowing for plenty of moisture to move into the region tomorrow is expected to be hot and humid. While the heat indices do get up to 112 which would be enough for a heat advisory, the issue does come down to how long those heat indices last. Currently, it does not seem like the timing threshold is being met to issue a heat advisory at this point. An SPS for the heat is also a possibility for if later shifts continue to see this questionable trend on the timing. The actual high temperature for tomorrow is expected to be mostly in the 90s. Parts of Starr and Zapata could get into the triple digits, while along the coast and the beaches the high temperatures are expected to be in the upper 80s. It will be a hot day tomorrow so make sure to take necessary precautions against the heat. Such as staying hydrated, taking frequent breaks, and wearing light/loose- fitting clothing. For tonight and tomorrow night, the low temperatures are expected to be in the 70s, with party cloudy to mostly cloudy skies. Humid conditions are expected to persist through both nights thanks to the onshore flow bringing in more low-level moisture. For anyone that will trying to beat the heat at the beaches, there is a Moderate Risk of Rip Currents through tomorrow. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Monday) Issued at 224 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024 Heat will become more problematic at the beginning of the long term. Temperatures have been running around 5 degrees above average lately, but differences from average Wednesday through Thursday could increase to a positive 10 degrees. A dryline will set up shop just to the west, not penetrating very far into the CWA, while at the same time moderate to fresh southeast breezes will pump high dew point (in the 70s) air inland, placing an upward stress on heat index values. Those heat index values could range from 111 to 114 degrees for a few hours both afternoons, in an area primarily sandwiched between I-69E and I-69C. Those heat index values would trigger a HEAT ADVISORY. Drier air to the west (remember the dryline?) will prevent heat index values from going as high across the upper RGV, despite triple digit mercury readings there. The mid-level pattern will remain rather zonal most of the week, but ridging will become more apparent heading into next weekend. Weather systems will thus, for the most part, avoid this part of the world through the week, yielding a dry forecast. Partly to mostly cloudy skies will generally prevail, with increased sunshine taking over each afternoon. Wildfire fuels are in transition (drying trend), but do not see any obvious fire weather threat days just yet. Relative humidity values will be in the teens and 20s out west Wednesday and Thursday afternoons, but winds will be a skosh too light for critical fire weather thresholds. Nonetheless, some enhanced wildfire growth and spread will be possible. A cold front will push into the area Friday morning ahead of the building weekend ridge, with increasing clouds late Thursday, possibly enough to trigger convection moving out of the Sierra Madre Orientals and into the Upper Valley late Thursday evening lingering into Friday. Scattered showers may develop and persist Friday and Saturday as the front pushes offshore. By Saturday morning a coastal trough will form with a warm front extending out from there into the Gulf. Though the warm front will lose definition through Saturday, a second (back door) cold front will push south over Texas on Sunday providing a broader coverage of showery precip. Temperatures will drop to near normal Friday through Sunday, warming again on Monday. Rain amounts will not be overwhelming. The best chance of real rain will be on Sunday with the second front when models suggest a quarter to half inch of rain for the day. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1230 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024 The latest satellite imagery depicts another round of stratus clouds across the region. MVFR/IFR ceilings will persist into the morning hours at all TAF sites, with a gradual improvement expected through the day. VFR will likely return at MFE by early Tuesday afternoon, but MVFR ceilings may persist at BRO and HRL. Despite any improvements through the day, ceilings will fall to MVFR once again after 04-05Z. Otherwise, southeast winds around 10-15 knots are expected through the TAF period. && .MARINE... Issued at 224 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024 Tonight through Tuesday Night...Mostly light to moderate southeast winds with moderate seas are expected to persist through Tuesday night. Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions are possible during the afternoon hours with the winds picking up a bit more, mostly for the Laguna Madre. Wednesday through Saturday night...Moderate southeast to south winds and moderate seas will initially prevail. Winds could occasionally become fresh, and wave heights could occasionally become slightly elevated, meaning small craft would then need to exercise caution. Winds will shift to northeast on Friday as a cold front pushes offshore. Isolated showers and thunderstorms may develop on Friday and Saturday as a coastal trough forms after the cold front passes through to offshore. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 93 78 95 78 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 96 75 99 76 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 98 78 101 78 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 99 76 103 76 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 84 78 85 78 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 91 76 93 76 / 0 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...64 LONG TERM....54 AVIATION...22-Garcia