664
FXUS64 KBRO 080254 AAB
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
954 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 243 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Key Message:

- Hot and unseasonably warm temperature are expected through
the short term.

-A Heat Advisory is in effect Wednesday afternoon from 1 PM to 7 PM
for inland, Cameron, inland Willacy, inland Kenedy, Hidalgo and
Brooks counties.

-Moderate risk of rip currents through Wednesday.

Zonal to slightly southwesterly flow aloft over the short term
period will lead to abnormally warm temperatures, heat indices in
the triple digits and dry conditions. At the surface, high pressure
over the eastern Gulf of Mexico will continue to provide southerly
flow. Low pressure across the Sierra Madre will lead to an increased
pressure gradient and slightly increased winds along the coast east
afternoon. We continue to see abundant cloud cover today, but as we
head into later this afternoon we should see a bit more clearing in
the afternoon.

Lets talk heat. Temperatures this afternoon will be well above
normal but thanks to lingering cloud cover, heat indices will
likely remain just shy of Heat Advisory criteria. For Wednesday,
temperatures are expected to be warmer with highs rising into the
90s and low triple digits across the region. Heat indices will
rise to between 104 degrees and 113 degrees across the entire CWA
away from the Island with the highest heat indices along the I-69C
corridor. A Heat Advisory has been issued for inland Cameron,
inland Willacy, inland Kenedy, Brooks, and Hidalgo counties with
heat indices between 111 degrees and 113 degrees Wednesday
afternoon. Overnight temperatures will be warm with lows in the
mid to upper 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 243 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Hot temperatures will continue to be the main concern for the
start of the long term period. As the dryline over Central Texas
shifts further east Thursday temperatures will again rise into the
triple digits. Higher dewpoints east of the dryline will likely
support heat indices in the 111-115 range roughly along and east
of I-69C Thursday afternoon.

A passing upper level shortwave looks to support the passage of a
cold front Thursday night into Friday. This will likely bring
more seasonal temperatures for the weekend, with afternoon highs
in the upper 80s to low 90s. Easterly to southeasterly surface
winds look to return by Sunday, bringing a slight increase in
temperatures and moisture.

Rain chances look to remain fairly low through the period, however
increased forcing and ample instability could support a slight
chance for showers and thunderstorms along the cold front Friday.
Additional rain chances look possible through the day Saturday as
weak overrunning looks to setup behind the front. With the return
of easterly to southeasterly surface winds Sunday, increased
moisture and instability could again support a slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms. The best chance for rain looks to be
Sunday, with PoPs around 20-30%.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 944 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

IR fog and stratus satellite channels indicating  low level
marine layer expanding inland with MVFR ceilings covering most of
the forecast region. Expect ceilings to lower a bit more and
possibly drop into IFR category a few hours after midnight or
closer to sunrise. Lower ceilings to persist into mid morning
before quickly mixing out and dissipating between 16-18Z, with VFR
prevailing the remainder of the TAF period. Some patchy MVFR to
IFR fog may develop at KBRO an KHRL around sunrise if winds lower
sufficiently with probabilities still low at 10-20 percent.
Duration of any fog should be short-lived.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 243 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Tonight through Wednesday night...Light to moderate southeast winds
and moderate seas will prevail through the forecast period.
Tonight, we could see some patchy fog/hazy conditions on the Gulf
waters. Brief periods of Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions
will be possible each afternoon, especially across the Laguna
Madre and northern Gulf waters due to elevated winds.

Thursday through next Tuesday...Light to moderate winds and
moderate seas are likely Thursday. However, stronger northeasterly
winds behind a cold front Friday will likely require Small Craft
Exercise Caution headlines or Small Craft Advisories Friday
afternoon. Wind speeds look to diminish Friday night, with light
to moderate winds and moderate seas continuing through the
remainder of the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             78  94  78 101 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN               76  99  76 104 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN                 78 102  77 105 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         76 105  76 107 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      77  84  78  88 /   0   0   0   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     77  93  76  98 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for TXZ250-251-
     253>255-353.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...68
LONG TERM....60
AVIATION...59-GB