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000
FXUS61 KBUF 160553
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
153 AM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure passing across the region will provide fair dry
weather through Tuesday. Unsettled weather will return by midweek,
as a weakening area of broad low pressure moves into the Great Lakes.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Expansive high pressure centered over the Canadian prairies will
gradually nose across the lower Great Lakes through Tuesday. This
will guarantee a period of fair dry weather through Tuesday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
An expansive storm system over the Upper Mississippi valley
will push a warm front northward across the Lower Great Lakes on
Wednesday. A plume of Gulf moisture will get drawn northward
into the region in the process. The main warm frontal boundary
is expected to slow, if not completely stall out over the region
as it will run up against a staunch ridge over New England.
This will likely cause sharply lower rain chances Wednesday for
the North Country compared to areas south of Lake Ontario and
western New York.

System cold front works in from the west Wednesday night and
Thursday bringing another round of showers. Better instability
parameters ahead and along this front could bring a few
embedded thunderstorms to Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday
night. Far western New York is then expected to begin drying
out by Thursday evening.

Temperatures through the midweek timeframe will heavily depend on
the timing of the frontal passages and precipitation, although
temperatures should average on the mild side both Wednesday and
Thursday with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s both days.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A large low pressure system will be in the process of stacking
in the vicinity of James Bay on Friday. This increasingly
positively tilted trough associated with the system will swing
a pair of cold fronts through the region between Friday and
Saturday. This will lead to renewed chances for rain showers by
the end of the week as well as a day-to- day cooling trend from
Friday into the weekend. Showers should taper off with less
coverage from late Saturday morning through Sunday. Monday
should also be mainly dry, but a few sprinkles or showers can`t
be completely ruled out as a quick moving shortwave trough
crosses the area. But a sfc high over the region and the lack of
synoptic moisture should limit the potential for any precip.

Temperatures will start out above normal for Friday, but will cool
to around 5 degrees below normal for the weekend. Temperatures start
to warm back to normal on Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Other than some mid level decks (7-10kft) across western NY
overnight, widespread VFR conditions and mainly light winds
will be the rule through the entire TAF period as high pressure
remains in control across western and northcentral NY.

Outlook...

Wednesday and Thursday...MVFR/VFR with showers likely.
Friday and Saturday...MVFR/VFR with a chance of showers.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will build over the Lakes through Tuesday. Winds will
be light and variable on Lake Erie with an onshore flow developing
by Tuesday afternoon. Winds on Lake Ontario will diminish by Tuesday
morning with an onshore flow developing by Tuesday afternoon.

Elevated easterly winds and small craft conditions should develop on
Lake Ontario, especially on the western end ahead of an approaching
warm front by Wednesday. Winds turn more southerly on both lakes
behind the warm front by Thursday.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM/TMA
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...RSH/TMA
LONG TERM...PP/SW
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...TMA