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000
FXUS62 KCAE 160525
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
125 AM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure and upper ridging will build over the southeastern
states during the first part of the week resulting in warm and
dry conditions. The ridge will weaken mid-week as a pair of cold
fronts approach the area bringing the potential for showers and
thunderstorms by late in the week. The front may stall near the
area late in the weekend with cooler temperatures and scattered
showers. Temperatures will be above to well above normal
through most of the week then cooler conditions by early next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
High pressure will continue to slowly meander eastward to our
south. Overnight, some passing clouds are expected as the ridge
continues to build but these are largely expected to not impact
temps. A stout low- level jet is expected to develop, which
will help hold surface winds up in most of the area. So expect
temps around 58F-62F most places.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Tuesday...Upper ridge centered over the Gulf will continue to
extend into the region. Surface ridge remains centered south of
the area and offshore. Deep low pressure system in the north-
central Plains moving northeast. The upper heights over the area
rise a bit although a short wave trough appears to move through
the area during the morning and early afternoon. Expect an
increase in mid level clouds, but model soundings show dry low
levels and subsidence. The air mass is weakly unstable in the
north Midlands in the afternoon where precipitable water is a
little higher, slightly above 1 inch. But HREF guidance shows a
few showers staying to the north across North Carolina where
ridge is weaker/closer to a "back door" front and higher
precipitable water. This front will lift back north as a warm
front. Warm advection appears weak and 850mb temps about the
same as today. Despite clouds, max temps should be only slightly
cooler. Highs in the mid to upper 80s.

Tuesday night...The ridge axis shifts to the east overnight as
mature cyclone in the upper midwest moves toward the Great Lakes
region. Additional weak short waves overnight, and expect mid
level clouds. Although a sprinkle is possible, low level remain
dry. With clouds, lows in the the low 60s.

Wednesday and Wednesday night...Upper ridge continues to weaken
and flow becomes more zonal. Expect mid level short waves to
move through but moisture mainly mid level. Modest increase in
low level moisture. Instability remains southwest of the
region, across the Deep South. Lapse rates are unimpressive.
Temps probably slightly cooler than Tuesday given increased
cloudiness despite weak warm advection. Overnight low temps
continue to moderate, low to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The ensemble guidance is trending toward well above normal
temperatures early in the period with a high probability (about
> 70% at CAE/AGS of reaching 90 degrees Thursday and continued
much warmer than normal Friday. Weak front/trough in the
Upstate early Thursday, near the area in the afternoon could be
a focus for a few showers and thunderstorms. Air mass may be a
little more unstable although moisture still appears somewhat
limited overall, but guidance pops remain quite low so will
continue a dry forecast. A much more robust cold front will be
moving east of the Mississippi Valley and approaching the area
by Saturday. Moisture and overall instability increases Friday
and with continued short wave triggers, expect at least isolated
afternoon showers/thunderstorms. GFS ensemble shows relatively
high probability of CAPE > 500 J/kg by Friday afternoon, CMC and
ECMWF ensembles suggest weaker instability.

Ensembles continue to show an anomalously deep trough in
southern Canada/Great Lakes moving east over the weekend with
near zonal flow over the Carolinas/Georgia. Short wave trough
moving from the upper Midwest southeast across the Ohio Valley
should push the main cold front into the area over the weekend.
So pops should come up to good chance by Sunday. The ensembles
suggesting front may slide south of CAE with much cooler temps
Sunday. The NBM max Temps Sunday are in the low to mid 70s most
areas.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions through the period.

FEW-SCT cirrus AOA 20k ft MSL, with low and mid clouds developing
late Tuesday morning. SFC winds generally variable at less than 5
kts through daybreak, then favoring a WLY/SWLY direction after about
16/15Z with speeds between 5 and 8 kts. Low clouds dissipate this
evening with winds again decreasing to light and variable or calm.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant impacts to aviation
expected through Saturday.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$