025
FXUS61 KCAR 030004
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
804 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will exit south of the Gulf of Maine early tonight.
High pressure then builds across the region later tonight
through Saturday. An occluded front approaches Saturday night
into Sunday, crosses the region Sunday night into Monday, then
exits across the Maritimes Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
804 PM Update: Isolated to scattered showers continue to track
from NE to SW through the forecast area this evening as seen on
current KCBW radar. Showers will slowly taper off through the
evening hours, with mostly cloudy skies holding on into Friday
morning. Dewpoint forecasts were raised slightly based on
current observations and trends, otherwise the previous forecast
remains on track.

Previous Discussion:
Surface low pressure, along with the supporting upper trof, will
exit south of the Gulf of Maine early tonight. Surface high
pressure then builds south across the region later tonight
through Friday. An upper level disturbance will also move south
across the region in advance of a building upper ridge Friday.
Expect isolated/scattered showers north, scattered/numerous
showers Downeast, early tonight with the exiting system. Mostly
cloudy skies should then persist across the forecast area
overnight. Could also have patchy fog later tonight mostly for
areas which received the steadier rain today. Expect mostly
cloudy/partly sunny skies across the forecast area Friday. Low
temperatures tonight will range from the upper 30s to around 40
across the forecast area. High temperatures Friday will
generally range from the upper 50s to around 60 across the
forecast area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The upper level ridge will help support the surface high
pressure in the region Friday night. The approaching occlusion
should increase cloud cover through the night. The E flow is
expected to bring cooler air into the region, which should drop
temps into the upper 30s. By Saturday, extended models show the
occlusion stalling to the W as the surface high pressure
intensifies. Thought there is still some disagreement between
QPF models, the high pressure should keep rain to the W and out
of the region for the day. Temps should be around 60.

By Saturday night, the axis of the upper level trof should move
across the region, which will push the next low pressure system
closer. The models have disagreement on the timing of the rain
with the Euro bringing rain showers into the area much faster
than the GFS and Canadian. Decided to go with slight chance for
the night. By Sunday, the upper level trof moves to the E
bringing the rest of the moisture from the cold front into the
area. Extended models still are inconsistent with the timing of
the rain showers, so backed off to slight chance in the morning,
then chance in the afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The low pressure system will progress through the area Sunday
night through Monday with rain showers through this period. As
the system intensifies Monday afternoon, the low should pick up
speed and move out of the state by Monday night. Weak high
pressure moves in Monday night and remains through Tuesday
night. The next system could move in on Wednesday, however, the
GFS and Euro show a defined low pressure system while the
Canadian shows shortwave energy surging around the surface trof.
High inconsistencies within the models make the forecast
difficult for the end of the week, so decreased the NBM rain
chances to slight chance or low end chance. Temps should be
seasonally normal.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR conditions will persist across northern
terminals, with an isolated rain shower possible briefly early
this evening while cigs remain VFR. Cigs will lower towards low
end VFR to upper end MVFR overnight through early Friday
morning, then return to VFR on Friday.

The primary cig height at Downeast terminals will also be VFR,
but in scattered rain showers this evening, brief periods of
MVFR and IFR cigs are likely, especially in any more moderate
rainfall. BCFG may develop through the early morning hours, but
confidence is low on any direct impacts to Downeast terminals.
Cigs will trend towards VFR on Friday.

Winds light and variable tonight becoming N at 5 to 10 kts on
Friday.

SHORT TERM: Fri night-Sat night...VFR. ENE winds 5-10 kts
switching to S Sat night.

Sun-Mon...MVFR/IFR in rain showers. SSW winds 5-10 kts.

Mon night-Tue...VFR. W winds 5-10 kts, increasing to 10-15 kts
Tue.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels tonight
through Friday. Showers early tonight.

SHORT TERM: Winds and seas should remain below SCA conditions
for this time period.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...AStrauser/Norcross
Short Term...LaFlash
Long Term...LaFlash
Aviation...AStrauser/Norcross/LaFlash
Marine...AStrauser/Norcross/LaFlash