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000
FXUS61 KCLE 121636
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1236 PM EDT Fri Apr 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong low moves north-northeastward from southern Ontario to
west-central Quebec through Saturday morning as a trough lingers
over northern Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania. A cold front
trailing the low continues sweeping across northwest Pennsylvania
and will exit to the east by daybreak this morning. A ridge
builds eastward across our region on Saturday before another cold
front sweeps generally southward through our area on Sunday
through Sunday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

Current forecast is on track. Made minor adjustments to cloud
cover, temperatures and dewpoints for the afternoon.
KCLE VAD shows 1000 ft winds near 20 knots with 40-45 kt winds
from 2000-10,000 ft above. Surface Winds are gusty to 30-35 mph
or below wind advisory criteria presently. Winds may increase
during the afternoon.


Previous discussion:
Only minor changes are planned for the
forecast for today. Rather dreary conditions will persist for
most of today as a deep low pressure center near Georgian Bay
moves to the northeast away from the area. Showers will continue
with a slow decrease near the i-75 corridor. Nearly steady
temperatures are expected from 48-52F. The 12Z sounding from DTX
shows 850 mb winds near 45 knots and some of this momentum may
mix down in the form of wind gusts of 40-50 mph as the mixing
depth reaches up to near 3000 Ft.

6:43 AM EDT Update...
The forecast remains valid per latest trends in obs and model
guidance. No changes appeared necessary.

Previous Discussion...
A surface trough lingers over our CWA through most of tonight
as a strong surface low moves NNE`ward from southern ON to west-
central QC by daybreak Saturday. The surface low is expected to
begin weakening this afternoon as it gradually becomes
vertically-stacked with a mid/upper-level low that should wobble
NE`ward from near Lake Michigan early this morning to near
west-central QC by daybreak Saturday. This pattern evolution
will allow cyclonic S`erly to SW`erly flow aloft to veer
gradually to NW`erly through tonight as multiple shortwave
disturbances revolve around the mid/upper-level low. A surface
cold front recently cleared our CWA to the east as of 5 AM EDT
this morning. Net low-level CAA behind the front will persist
through tonight. Today`s afternoon highs are expected to reach
the mid to upper 40`s in NW PA and mainly the upper 40`s to mid
50`s in northern OH amidst periodic peeks of sunshine,
especially this afternoon and early evening. Overnight lows
tonight should settle into the mid to upper 30`s in NW PA and
mainly the upper 30`s to lower 40`s in northern OH.

Note: A Wind Advisory has been issued for our whole CWA and
takes effect at 11 AM EDT this morning. The advisory is in
effect until 12 AM Saturday for most of our counties, but is set
to expire at 5 AM Saturday for Cuyahoga County E`ward to our NW
PA counties. Low-level winds and CAA increasing with height
will promote steep low-level lapse rates and relatively-deep
mechanical mixing of the boundary layer tapping into stronger
flow aloft. As a result, W`erly surface winds are expected to
gust up to 40 to 50 mph, especially late this morning through
early evening as some diurnal convective mixing of the boundary
layer also occurs. Gusts are forecast to ease noticeably by
daybreak Saturday as the boundary layer eventually stabilizes
via nocturnal cooling and the low-level pressure gradient
relaxes in response to weakening of the aforementioned surface
low.

Periodic and scattered rain showers, heavy at times, are
expected through tonight as surface trough axes accompanying
the shortwave disturbances aloft sweep generally E`ward through
our CWA. Low-level convergence and associated ascent along these
trough axes will release weak potential instability amidst
sufficient moisture in the lowest 1 km AGL. Self-destructive
sunshine stemming from the combination of daytime heating of the
boundary layer and much colder air farther aloft will also
contribute to rain shower development this afternoon through
early evening. Showers are expected to end generally from west
to east overnight tonight and by daybreak Saturday as a surface
ridge begins to build from the Upper Midwest and is accompanied
by a lowering/stabilizing subsidence inversion. Rain showers
should mix with or change to wet snow after midnight tonight in
the higher terrain of NW PA. Any snow accumulations are expected
to be less than a half inch.

Odds favor fair weather CWA-wide on Saturday as the aforementioned
ridge at the surface and aloft builds from the Upper Midwest.
Gradual and considerable clearing is expected from west to east
courtesy of subsidence accompanying the ridge. Highs should
reach the the lower 50`s to lower 60`s in northern OH. Cooler
highs in the upper 40`s to lower 50`s are expected in NW PA
where greater cloud cover will result in less daytime heating.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Brief low/mid level ridging will glide eastward to begin the
short term period as a warm front lifts across the Eastern Great
Lakes during the day Sunday. Temperatures on Sunday will rise
into the upper 60s across Northwest Pennsylvania to mid 70s
across Northwest Ohio as the warm front approaches. This warm
front will be followed by a cold front that will sag southward
across Northern Ohio on Sunday evening. Showers and thunderstorms
will develop Sunday afternoon and evening along and ahead of
the cold front. Will need to continue to monitor the forecast
for any severe weather potential as models hint at a time frame
with decent instability, ~1000 J/kg MLCAPE, and roughly 30-35
kts of 0-6 km shear. High pressure briefly builds overhead on
Monday. Low temperatures through the short term period will be a
few degrees above normal as they settle in the mid to upper 40s
each night. High temperatures roughly 10 degrees above normal
Sunday and Monday in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Fairly warm and active pattern ahead through the long term period.
Low pressure centered over the Great Plains lifts a warm front
northeastward across the Ohio Valley on Tuesday. Expect scattered
showers and thunderstorms as the warm front lifts across the region
Tuesday afternoon and evening. The low will continue to move
northeastward toward the Great Lakes region and swing a cold front
eastward across the local area on Wednesday. The cold front will
stall across Lake Erie by Thursday and will keep rain chances in the
forecast through the end of the long term period.

Above normal temperatures will continue through the long term period
with afternoon highs each day rising into the mid to upper 70s for
most spots in our forecast area. Warm overnight lows will settle in
the upper 50s to low 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Cyclonic S`erly to SW`erly flow aloft over our region veers to
NW`erly during the TAF period as a low wobbles NE`ward from
Lower MI toward west-central QC. At the surface, a strong low
should move NNE`ward from southern ON toward west-central QC and
weaken gradually this afternoon through 12Z/Sat. A trough lingers
over our region before a ridge begins to build from the Upper
Midwest after ~09Z/Sat. WSW`erly to WNW`erly winds around 15 to
25 knots, gusting up to 30 to 40 knots at times, are expected
through the TAF period. Diurnal convective mixing of the
boundary layer tapping into stronger flow aloft should contribute
to the strongest gusts occurring between ~15Z/Fri and ~00Z/Sat.

Widespread low clouds and associated VFR to MVFR ceilings are
expected to linger over most of our region through 12Z/Sat.
However, these low clouds should scatter-out over/near our I-75
corridor counties after 00Z/Sat. Pockets of IFR ceilings are
possible at times. Scattered rain showers, steady to heavy at
times, are expected, especially before ~09Z/Sat, as multiple
disturbances revolve around the aforementioned low aloft and
traverse our area. Rain should mix with or change to wet snow in
the higher terrain of NW PA after 04Z/Sat. Visibility should
vary between VFR and MVFR in precip.

Outlook...Non-VFR expected with periodic rain showers and
thunderstorms during the predawn hours of Sunday morning through
predawn hours of Monday morning and again overnight Monday night
into Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
-Gale Warning in effect from 8 AM today to 8 AM EDT Saturday for
 open U.S. waters from Ripley to Buffalo
-Small Craft Advisory in effect until 10 AM Saturday from
 Maumee Bay to Vermilion
-Small Craft Advisory in effect until 5 PM Saturday from
 Vermilion to Willowick
-Small Craft Advisory in effect until 8 PM Saturday from
 Willowick to Ripley

A cold front over far-eastern Lake Erie continues moving
eastward and exits the lake by daybreak this morning. Otherwise,
a trough lingers over Lake Erie as a strong low moves NNE`ward
from southern ON to west-central QC through daybreak Saturday.
S`erly to SW`erly winds around 10 to 20 knots ahead of the cold
front veer to W`erly to WNW`erly and freshen to 20 to 30 knots
behind the front. These post-front winds are expected to reach
35 knots at times between daybreak this morning and daybreak
Saturday over open U.S. waters between Ripley and Buffalo. Waves
build to as large as 5 to 10 feet with the largest waves expected
east of The Islands.

A ridge builds from the Upper Midwest on Saturday and then exits
generally E`ward Saturday night. W`erly to NW`erly winds around
20 to 30 knots at daybreak Saturday ease to around 10 to 15
knots by nightfall as waves subside gradually to 5 feet or less.
W`erly winds around 10 to 15 knots back toward S`erly Saturday
night on the backside of the departing ridge as waves subside
further to 3 feet or less. Some of the above-mentioned Small
Craft Advisories may have their expiration times extended based
on future forecast trends. S`erly winds around 10 to 20 knots
veer toward NW`erly on Sunday as a cold front sweeps generally
SE`ward across the lake. Waves rebuild to as large as 4 feet and
a Small Craft Advisory may be needed.

Winds are forecast to ease to around 5 to 10 knots and become
variable in direction on Monday as a ridge moves eastward across
Lake Erie. Waves subside to 2 feet or less. E`erly to SE`erly
winds around 10 to 20 knots develop Monday night into Tuesday
as the ridge begins to exit generally E`ward from Lake Erie, a
deepening low wobbles E`ward across the Central Great Plains,
and the attendant warm front approaches the lake from the south.
Waves of 3 feet or less are expected in U.S. waters.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Wind Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for OHZ003-006>010-
     017>023-027>033-036>038-047.
     Wind Advisory until 5 AM EDT Saturday for OHZ011>014-089.
PA...Wind Advisory until 5 AM EDT Saturday for PAZ001>003.
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Saturday for LEZ142>144.
     Low Water Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LEZ142>144-
     162>164.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Saturday for LEZ145-146.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for LEZ147>149.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Jaszka
NEAR TERM...LaPlante
SHORT TERM...Iverson
LONG TERM...Iverson
AVIATION...Jaszka
MARINE...Jaszka