Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
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873 FXUS64 KCRP 292343 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 643 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday night) Issued at 315 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 Key Messages: Low to medium chance for showers and storms tomorrow Coastal flood and high risk of rip currents will continue tomorrow A quiet radar continues this afternoon with all the convection today remaining just northeast of South Texas. Low chances for thunderstorms (less than 25%) will continue this afternoon and evening, however, if something does develop it could become severe with damaging winds and hail as the primary threats. Rain chances will decrease tonight before increasing to a low to medium chance tomorrow morning. While the upper-level forcing doesn`t look impressive tomorrow, plenty of moisture (PWAT 1.5-1.8") and vorticity in the 850 and 700 mb levels could promote showers and thunderstorms. At this time, any showers or thunderstorms that develop tomorrow are not expected to become severe. While winds continue to decrease, swell heights and periods continue to remain elevated, thus, continuing the threat of coastal flooding and high risk of rip currents. With current swell heights from Buoy 42019 coming in at 6.5-7.5 ft with swell periods between 8-9 seconds, coastal flooding could remain a concern and did not feel comfortable allowing it to expire this evening. These conditions will also lead to a continued risk of high rip currents. This will be especially noticeable in any areas of egress from the intracoastal waters as the waters from minor coastal flooding find their way back to the Gulf. Warm temperatures are expected to continue tomorrow with highs in the mid 80s to mid 90s with heat index values from the mid 90s to near 100 degrees. Overnight lows will not provide much relief as temperatures will remain warm in the 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Sunday) Issued at 315 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 Key Messages: - Isolated to scattered thunderstorms Wednesday through Saturday - Strong to severe thunderstorms possible Wednesday - Risk of coastal flooding to persist Wednesday and Thursday Global/mesoscale deterministic NWP models predict upper forcing (either shortwaves or subtropical jet streaks) to affect the CWA Wednesday through Saturday. The GFS maintains above normal PWAT values during the period. The combination of the foregoing will maintain a slight chance/chance for convection Wednesday through Saturday. In response to one of the upper disturbances predicted to move across the central/northern Plains, a cold front is expected to approach central/southern Texas and stall. Given the addition of surface forcing, decided to increase POPs over the CWA Friday beyond that of the NBM. Concur with SPC with regard to a Marginal risk of severe convection Wednesday over much of CWA, as the deterministic GFS predicts CAPE/DCAPE values comparable to strong/severe and predicts BRN values consistent with multicells/supercells. The deterministic models predict a flat upper ridge to build over the region Sunday, and result in a decreasing chance for precipitation. The P-ETSS maintains waters levels, during the times of high tide, near the threshold for coastal flooding at Aransas Pass Wednesday/Thursday. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 625 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 A mix of VFR and MVFR conditions can be expected across VCT, CRP and ALI as clouds fill in and bases lower through the evening. Clouds will spread west with MVFR CIGs developing across LRD and COT after 09Z. Light patchy fog will also lead to periods of MVFR VSBYs overnight into Tuesday morning. VFR conditions will resume by mid to late Tuesday morning. Isolated TSRAs across the northern Brush Country this evening will diminish though 01-03Z. Isolated to scattered SHRAs/TSRAs can be expected Tuesday, mainly across the eastern areas of S TX beginning Tuesday morning along the coast and continuing through Tuesday afternoon farther inland with sea breeze. The chance of convection is low to medium (15-30%). && .MARINE... Issued at 315 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 Weak to moderate onshore flow will continue today through Tuesday night with a low chance for showers and thunderstorms this evening and tonight and a medium chance tomorrow. Seas are expected to continue to gradually subside this afternoon dropping below 7 feet late this afternoon and allowing for the Small Craft Advisory to expire. The combination of upper disturbances and moist conditions will contribute to isolated showers and thunderstorms Wednesday through Friday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 74 87 75 86 / 10 30 0 20 Victoria 70 87 72 84 / 10 30 0 30 Laredo 74 95 75 94 / 20 10 0 30 Alice 73 90 74 89 / 10 30 0 30 Rockport 74 85 75 84 / 20 30 0 20 Cotulla 73 96 75 93 / 0 0 0 30 Kingsville 74 88 75 87 / 10 40 0 30 Navy Corpus 75 85 75 84 / 20 40 10 20 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ245-342>347- 442-443-447. High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for TXZ345-442-443- 447. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ250-255- 270-275. && $$ SHORT TERM...JCP LONG TERM....WC AVIATION...TE/81