Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 280947
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
447 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry weather has returned to SW KS, with a rapid warming trend
  expected through Friday.

- Strong south to southwest winds Thursday afternoon, with an
  elevated risk of wildfire spread.

- A beautiful Easter weekend is expected, with unseasonably warm
  temperatures in the lower 80s Easter afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 254 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

The upper levels over western Kansas will be increasingly under
a ridging pattern, bringing subsidence and mostly clear
conditions Today. The models indicate some sky cover in the
afternoon which might be some invading cirrus as seen already
this morning on the GOES nighttime microphysics RBG composite.
The 850 mb wind field picks up significantly along the gradient
ahead of the developing lee trough. Mixing ought to ensue by
mid morning, as gusts in the LAMP guidance and commonly exceeds
30 knots for Hays and Dodge City. The widespread well mixed
airmass should find afternoon highs generally around 70 degrees.

Winds remain in the 10-15 knots range overnight as the gusts
cease after sunset, apparently allowing enough mixing for
temperatures to remain relatively mild – above freezing from mid
30s west to the low/mid 40s southeast.

A modifying airmass in the northern plains will be warmer as
it’s driven southward Friday. Veering surface winds will become
lighter as the drier air more efficiently warms through both
adiabatic downsloping and strong insolation. Warmest
temperatures will likely be ahead of the surface cold front, and
although it’s not that cold, it’s still the direction of the
colder air. A reasonably wide range of outcomes is possible for
highs, as the 25th percentile NBM focuses 80 degrees or higher
over just the red hills, but the 75th percentile places just
about everything south of a Larned to Garden City line above 80
degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 254 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

Saturday may bring a break in the temperatures to the cooler
side as the high pressure influences the central Plains. Models
and NBM have the surface winds veering to the southwest again
by Sunday, and a return to the warm upper 70s or low 80s appears
imminent. For many runs now the models have advertised a cold
front and enhanced precipitation period around Monday/Tuesday.
This could range from chances for thunderstorms along the
frontal passage to rain and or snow behind the front into Monday
night. All that is followed by a windy Tuesday and returning to
another warming trend at least though the end of the 7 day
forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 444 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

Nighttime microphysics RGB sat imagery was showing a developing
area of fog over Barber county KS, or the Med Lodge vicinity.
This area of dense fog, as confirmed by the Med Lodge AWOS, will
continue until after the sunrise and surface mixing able to
erode it. But - based on the HRRR and WRF-ARW models did
forecast this area of dvelopment well. The rest of the area will
only see a little cirrus. Low level (850 mb) winds markedly
increase across western Kansas. A return to southwest gusty
winds is then expected with mixing developing by around 16z.
Sustained winds to around 22 knots and gusts up to around 30
knots will common at any of the local terminals through the end
of the afternoon when the sun angle declines and mixing ceases.



&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 254 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

The far southwest locations, around Liberal and Elkhart to
Ulysses and Syracuse will be the overall driest with the highest
fire risk Today, approaching red flag for about 4 or 5 hours in
the afternoon, if not touching the meteorological criterion for
some of that time. Open burning should be strongly discouraged
for these areas. On Friday the southwest region will again be in
an elevated fire weather risk, and although winds will be far
weaker, the low humidity will mean fire can escape control more
easily.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99
FIRE WEATHER...99


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