690
AXPZ20 KNHC 171536
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Fri May 17 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 11N86W to 15N102W to 07N113W. The
ITCZ extends from 07N113W to 04N140W. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is noted from 05N-17N east of 108W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging extends from 28N130W to 20N115W to 15N103W. The
pressure gradient from the ridge to a trough over NW Mexico is
forcing moderate to fresh NW winds north of the Revillagigedo
Islands. Elsewhere, winds are gentle or weaker. Seas are 5-7 ft
along the Pacific waters and 1-3 ft over the Gulf of California.
Reduced visibilities are occurring south of S Mexico due to
agricultural fires.

For the forecast, the surface ridge over the waters west of the
Baja California peninsula along with the trough over NW Mexico
will promote fresh NW to N winds north of Cabo San Lucas for the
next several days. A broad area of low pressure could form
several hundred miles to the south of S Mexico during the next
couple of days. Some slow development of this system is possible
thereafter as it moves slowly to the west or west- northwest,
remaining south of the coast of Mexico by the middle portion of
next week. Looking ahead, large NW swell may impact the waters
west of Baja California Norte beginning on Mon.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Winds are moderate or weaker across the Central American and
equatorial Pacific waters due to a weak pressure gradient over
the area. Seas are 3-6 ft.

For the forecast, the monsoon trough extending along 11-12N will
help force scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the
Central American waters for the next couple of days. Away from
the isolated thunderstorms, winds should remain moderate or
weaker through early next week.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Surface ridging extends from 28N130W to 20N115W to 15N103W with a
weak trough extending from a 1018 mb low at 31N136W to 29N140W.
The pressure gradient between the ridging and lower pressure
along the ITCZ is forcing moderate to fresh NE to E trades from
05N-18N west of 120W. A weak 1011 mb low is centered at 10N105W
with fresh SW winds within 120 NM on the SE semicircle.
Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker elsewhere. Seas are 6-8
ft across the basin.

For the forecast, little change is expected for the tradewinds
during the next several days. While environmental conditions
appear only marginally favorable due to nearby dry air, some
development of the low is possible during the next day or so as
it remains nearly stationary. By late this weekend, the low is
forecast to interact or merge with this second system to its
east, and further development is not expected. Additionally, a
broad area of low pressure could form several hundred miles to
the south of southern Mexico during the next couple of days. Some
slow development of this system is possible thereafter as it
moves slowly to the west or west-northwest, remaining south of
the coast of Mexico by the middle portion of next week. Large SW
swell should reach near the equator west of 100W later today and
continue through Sun.

$$
Landsea