Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS
000
FXUS64 KEPZ 132004
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
204 PM MDT Sat Apr 13 2024
...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 200 PM MDT Sat Apr 13 2024
Warm and breezy weather will continue for Sunday. On Monday, a
system will bring strong winds, high to extreme fire danger, and
areas of blowing dust. By Tuesday, we resume a warm and breezy
regime that will finish out the period.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM MDT Sat Apr 13 2024
UL ridging is in place this afternoon across NM and far west TX.
Some high clouds are riding in the from the south, but for the
most part it is a fairly quiet and warm day with just some
afternoon breeziness. We can expect much the same for Sunday as
the ridge gradually translates east ahead of a potent UL low
presently off the CA coast.
This low will become a major play for our weather on Monday. As it
swings east across UT and CO. This path will place the main 110+
kt jet right over Southern NM by afternoon. Meanwhile, at the
surface, a ~987 mb low will form over NE CO while a Pacific cold
front will move west to east across our area, helping to pack the
gradient. With max daytime heating, mixing looks to reach around
600 mb, so all the ingredients are coming together for a rather
windy day. Looking at NBM 75th percentile for gusts, which often
is a good guide for top gusts, a large area is over 50 knots.
Therefore I have upgraded most of the existing high wind watch to
a warning. Some less typically windy areas I switched to an
advisory while adding most of the Gila as well to either an
advisory or warning. Within the advisory, wind gusts of 50-55 MPH
looks likely, while warning areas will see gusts of 60-70 MPH. The
highest gusts will be in the mountains of the Sacs and east slope
areas. With the strong winds, blowing dust looks like a pretty
good bet. The one thing that may help with visibility issues is
the deep mixing may reduce concentrations. Also, it will be very
dry, so fire danger will be high to extreme. Outdoor burning is
discouraged.
Quasi-zonal flow will be the rule for the remainder of the period.
This will keep us warm, breezy, and very dry each afternoon.
Models do show a backdoor cold front trying to enter from the east
on Friday. Guidance is struggling with how far west this air mass
will progress and subsequently how much cooler it will get Friday
and into the weekend. This air mass does have an increase in
moisture associated with it. Both the GFS and Euro show a weak s/w
approaching from AZ on Saturday, and the Euro allows for some
spotty precip, but the GFS is completely dry. NBM shows some
mentionable POPs for Otero and Hudspeth Counties as a result.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1127 AM MDT Sat Apr 13 2024
VFR conditions expected with SKC-FEW220. Winds will be breezy this
afternoon from 200-240 with speeds of 10-15 knots and gusts to 25
knots. Speeds come down after dark.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 200 PM MDT Sat Apr 13 2024
CRITICAL TO EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON MONDAY.
Very dry conditions continue for Sunday with poor overnight
recoveries expected in the morning. Winds will top out around 15
MPH. Vent rates will range very good to excellent. This will help
dry fuels, especially across the Sacramento Mountains.
Fire concerns increase dramatically as a potent upper-level storm
passes to our north on Monday. It will bring strong 20-foot winds
to the area ranging 30 to 40 MPH with gusts up to 50 MPH,
especially in the mountains. These strong winds will combine with
min RH values in the single digits in the lowlands and lower to
middle teens in the Sacramento Mountains. RFTI values will range 6
to 8 in the lowlands and 6 to 7 in the Sacs, leading to critical
to extremely critical fire concerns. The fire weather watch has
been upgraded to a warning for all but the Gila. In the Gila,
winds will be well over critical thresholds, but higher min RH
values and wetter fuels will preclude red flag issuance. With the
strong winds, vent rates will be excellent area wide.
Elevated fire conditions will continue Tuesday onward. Each
afternoon will feature single-digit min RH values with 20-foot
winds topping out 10 to 15 MPH. At this time, no wide spread critical
conditions are anticipated for Tuesday through Thursday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 58 85 65 84 / 0 0 0 0
Sierra Blanca 54 82 60 83 / 0 0 0 0
Las Cruces 52 85 55 81 / 0 0 0 0
Alamogordo 50 81 54 79 / 0 0 0 0
Cloudcroft 40 58 43 54 / 0 0 0 0
Truth or Consequences 48 82 49 74 / 0 0 0 0
Silver City 44 72 43 63 / 0 0 0 0
Deming 46 82 47 75 / 0 0 0 0
Lordsburg 44 80 44 71 / 0 0 0 0
West El Paso Metro 55 83 60 82 / 0 0 0 0
Dell City 49 85 53 85 / 0 0 0 0
Fort Hancock 53 87 59 88 / 0 0 0 0
Loma Linda 52 77 57 77 / 0 0 0 0
Fabens 53 85 60 87 / 0 0 0 0
Santa Teresa 50 82 57 80 / 0 0 0 0
White Sands HQ 56 82 60 80 / 0 0 0 0
Jornada Range 47 80 51 77 / 0 0 0 0
Hatch 46 83 51 78 / 0 0 0 0
Columbus 51 82 52 79 / 0 0 0 0
Orogrande 48 80 54 79 / 0 0 0 0
Mayhill 46 74 50 68 / 0 0 0 0
Mescalero 44 69 47 65 / 0 0 0 0
Timberon 42 68 45 66 / 0 0 0 0
Winston 40 75 42 65 / 0 0 0 0
Hillsboro 44 80 45 71 / 0 0 0 0
Spaceport 43 80 47 74 / 0 0 0 0
Lake Roberts 39 72 39 63 / 0 0 0 0
Hurley 41 76 40 66 / 0 0 0 0
Cliff 45 78 43 69 / 0 0 0 0
Mule Creek 44 74 42 63 / 0 0 0 0
Faywood 44 76 44 68 / 0 0 0 0
Animas 44 80 45 74 / 0 0 0 0
Hachita 46 81 47 76 / 0 0 0 0
Antelope Wells 45 81 47 76 / 0 0 0 0
Cloverdale 46 75 45 69 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Wind Warning from 1 PM to 10 PM MDT Monday for TXZ419>421.
Wind Advisory from 1 PM to 10 PM MDT Monday for TXZ418-422>424.
Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 10 PM MDT Monday for TXZ055-056.
NM...High Wind Warning from 1 PM to 10 PM MDT Monday for NMZ403-
406>411-414>417-425>427.
Wind Advisory from 1 PM to 10 PM MDT Monday for NMZ401-404-405-
428-429.
Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 10 PM MDT Monday for NMZ111>113.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...34-Brown