Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS
000
FXUS64 KEPZ 200907
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
307 AM MDT Sat Apr 20 2024
...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 252 AM MDT Sat Apr 20 2024
Other than isolated showers and storms across far northeastern
areas this afternoon, quiet conditions are expected into next
week. Breezy and dry weather is forecast for much of next week
with increasing fire danger late in the period. After a brief
cool down on Sunday, temperatures rebound to above normal early in
the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 252 AM MDT Sat Apr 20 2024
The backdoor cold front has stalled just west of the Rio Grande
Valley, indicated by a decent dew point gradient (30s/40s to the
east and teens to the west). An approaching shortwave trough will
try to kick off some weak convection this afternoon along our
northern CWA border, but forcing and moisture are pretty meager.
There actually is some instability (up to 500 J/kg SFC CAPE) and
shear (25-30kt bulk) modeled across the northern San Andres and
northern Otero county. The dry lower levels will prove difficult
for rain to reach the ground, but gusty downdrafts/outflows are
possible, as well as dry lightning. QPF is expected to be light
with any storms that develop as they progress to the east-
southeast. The Sacs, east slopes especially, have the best chance
at getting a storm during the afternoon. By sunset, the shortwave
moves off to the east with drier air moving in from the west,
largely ending the threat of any convection.
Meanwhile, the front sloshes around the Rio Grande during the day
with relatively moist, easterly winds continuing to the east and
dry, westerlies to the west. Sunday will be quiet as some of the
surface moisture pushes towards the AZ border with the front. A
mix of sun and clouds is expected with some cumulus buildup during
the afternoon.
Weak ridging builds in for the first half of next week with a
minor wave passing to the south Sunday night. This feature should
produce mid-high cloud cover for Monday but will otherwise not
have any impact. For Tuesday, our winds shift westerly and become
breezier as the ridge is nudged eastward by an approaching upper
low. This system opens up into a shortwave trough on Wednesday
while moving into the SW US. It is modeled to swing through the
Four Corners region into Thursday, inducing a 995-ish mb lee
cyclone in SE CO and surface troughing through NM. Breezy to windy
conditions are forecast for Thursday as the surface low
strengthens. Breezy west winds persist on Friday before another
more potent trough moves into the region for next weekend,
bringing a shot at strong winds.
Temperatures will be a bit cooler for today with the shortwave
passage and lingering cold front, decreasing some more for Sunday.
After that, we warm back to above normal by midweek underneath
the ridge. Then, temperatures cool slightly each day later in the
week behind the two upper troughs.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1145 PM MDT Fri Apr 19 2024
VFR conditions are expected through the period across all of the TAF
sites with CIG FEW-SCT250. There will be periods of SKC. The winds
will be light (AOB 10 kts) through 18Z. The winds will then become
low-end breezy (10 to 15 kts with gusts 20 kts) while generally out
from the southwest through 00Z. They will subside thereafter. There
will be no reduction in the VSBY across the runways.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 252 AM MDT Sat Apr 20 2024
Fire weather concerns remain low through Monday, then increasing
later next week. For today, dry lightning is a concern for
northern areas of FWZs 112 and 113 during the afternoon. There is
a slight chance of a few dry thunderstorms, in addition to gusty
outflow/downdraft winds, especially along the east slopes of the
Sacs. However, added surface moisture from the backdoor cold front
may help alleviate those concerns. Dry and modestly breezy
conditions contribute to areas of elevated fire danger for today
west of the Rio Grande. Some of that moisture filters into western
areas for Sunday, allowing min RHs to mostly climb above critical
levels through Monday.
We dry out from Tuesday onward as winds shift to westerly. Winds
increase a bit as well with 20-ft winds near 15 mph Tues- Wed,
resulting in elevated-near critical fire weather according to our
RFTI grids. Two upper troughs then move through the region later
next week, increasing winds to critical levels (20-25 mph at
20-ft) starting on Thursday. RFTI rises to mostly near-critical
category as fuels continue to dry, including in the mountains.
Min RHs will be 15-40% today east of the Rio Grande, 7-15% west;
15-35% everywhere Sunday and Monday; then 7-15%. Vent rates range
from poor in FWZ 113 to excellent west of the Rio Grande today,
then fair to very good Sunday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 86 52 78 53 / 0 0 0 0
Sierra Blanca 75 45 68 45 / 0 0 0 10
Las Cruces 88 49 79 50 / 0 0 0 0
Alamogordo 80 45 76 45 / 20 10 0 0
Cloudcroft 56 35 55 34 / 40 10 0 0
Truth or Consequences 83 50 77 51 / 10 0 0 0
Silver City 77 47 73 47 / 0 0 0 0
Deming 86 48 80 48 / 0 0 0 0
Lordsburg 84 48 80 52 / 0 0 0 0
West El Paso Metro 83 51 76 52 / 0 0 0 0
Dell City 73 43 69 42 / 10 0 0 0
Fort Hancock 84 46 77 47 / 0 0 0 10
Loma Linda 73 44 68 45 / 10 0 0 0
Fabens 83 48 79 50 / 0 0 0 0
Santa Teresa 83 47 76 48 / 0 0 0 0
White Sands HQ 82 51 76 51 / 10 0 0 0
Jornada Range 83 45 77 44 / 10 0 0 0
Hatch 86 46 80 46 / 0 0 0 0
Columbus 86 49 80 52 / 0 0 0 0
Orogrande 77 46 73 45 / 10 0 0 0
Mayhill 59 36 61 37 / 30 10 0 0
Mescalero 67 38 66 39 / 40 10 0 0
Timberon 65 35 63 35 / 20 0 0 0
Winston 75 43 72 44 / 10 0 0 0
Hillsboro 82 45 77 46 / 0 0 0 0
Spaceport 82 45 78 44 / 10 10 0 0
Lake Roberts 78 43 75 43 / 0 0 0 0
Hurley 81 43 75 44 / 0 0 0 0
Cliff 84 48 83 50 / 0 0 0 0
Mule Creek 79 49 79 50 / 0 0 0 0
Faywood 80 46 74 45 / 0 0 0 0
Animas 84 47 81 51 / 0 0 0 0
Hachita 85 47 80 50 / 0 0 0 0
Antelope Wells 84 48 80 50 / 0 0 0 0
Cloverdale 79 51 78 51 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...39-Aronson