907
FXUS64 KEWX 130628
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
128 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered showers and storms today and again Sunday

- An early week cold front to bring an increase of rain and storm chances
  with locally heavy rain possible

- Uncertainty exists regarding the potential for heavy rain and/or
  dangerous heat midweek

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 126 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Similar to yesterday we should see streamer showers form early in
the morning and continue traversing northward from the Gulf due to
the abundance of moisture across the area. As such any of these
showers could produce a quick quarter to half an inch or more in any
of the heavier showers. Once we get some heating during the day we
could even see some isolated to scattered thunderstorms that could
contain brief heavy rainfall, frequent lightning and brief gusty
winds as we remain in a tropical like environment. Most of this
activity should decrease after sunset with the most likely areas
along and east of the I-35 Corridor. Regarding heat most should see
highs in the upper 80s to low 90s, add in the humidity and the
"feels like" or heat index temperatures will range more in the 100
to 106 degree range tomorrow. Lows will remain mild with stratus
developing overnight and moisture remaining across the area expect
temps to remain in the mid to upper 70s.

Sunday we could see more of the same however we could see more
widespread activity as even higher moisture moves off the Gulf and
across the area. Recent Hi-Res guidance suggests we could see PWATs
over 2 inches by daybreak Sunday. Any streamer showers and storms
will be capable of producing a quick inch of rain in any of the
heavier cells. similarly expect similar highs in the upper 80s to
low 90s across the area along with heat indices once again
approaching 100 to 105 degree range across the area.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 126 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Moisture levels continue to increase even further by early next week
as a disturbance currently located over the Bay of Campeche is
expected to move northward into either Northern Mexico or the
Southern TX Coast. Global models continue to diverge on the exact
details with two solutions possible. The first being that the
disturbance and the its vorticity moves northward and dissipates
over the mountains of Northern Mexico which would gives us a more
drier solution across our area thus reducing the heavy rainfall
threat. The second solution is that the disturbance moves northward
and emerges along with its vorticity and becomes trapped in weak
steering flow allowing for multiple rounds of showers and storms
across our area and southern TX. The second solution would lead to a
higher signal of heavier rainfall. Decided to remain between the two
with medium chance pops (30-60%) staying in the forecast as the
latest ensemble guidance indicates a slightly wetter solution.

Additionally, a late season front is expected to move across the
area sometime Monday with the highest chances of rain expected
during this timeframe as well. Due to the increased moisture across
the area we could see a risk for instances of flash flooding as any
of the storms would be capable of producing torrential rainfall. As
such, WPC has most of the area in a level 1 of 4 risk of excessive
rainfall for Sunday and Monday with a level 2 of 4 risk across the
Coastal Plains for Monday. Moisture continues to remain across the
area as do showers and storms going into Tuesday with WPC again
keeping our area along and east of the I-35 Corridor in a level 1 of
4 risk for excessive rainfall as its possible the aforementioned
disturbance may remain just close enough to impact the eastern half
of our area.

Regarding temperatures we should see temps drop a bit back into the
80s Monday and Tuesday as cloud cover remains rather thick due to
scattered to widespread activity of showers and thunderstorms.
Additionally as the front passes winds should switch back to the
northeast helping to tame temps somewhat as well. Beyond Tuesday
things continue to remain uncertain as the aforementioned
disturbance over Mexico and its remnants will have a big impact on
if we continue seeing more rainfall or a drier solution leading to
more heat across the area. If the direr solution were to happen we
could see temperatures approach the upper 90s to near triple digits
across the area. Add in the abundant moisture across our region and
we could be looking at heat indices near or even above 110 degrees!
This would certainly warrant a issuing heat products across the
area. However due to the continued uncertainty in which solution
wins out this in turn will determine what type of forecast happens
mid to late next week. Stay tuned and check back to the forecast
often and details will likely change regarding these scenarios.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Primary concern is development of MVFR cigs once again this
morning as well as PROB30 groups for TSRA potential at AUS, SAT,
and SSF 17Z-23Z today. Seabreeze activity will ramp up again today
as southeasterly flow increases to 10-15 kts. DRT should see MVFR
cigs develop a bit later than the other sites, around 09Z before
breaking up to VFR by 17Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              93  77  93  75 /  20   0  50  70
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  93  78  93  75 /  20   0  50  70
New Braunfels Muni Airport     92  75  91  74 /  20  10  60  60
Burnet Muni Airport            91  75  91  72 /   0   0  30  80
Del Rio Intl Airport           96  78  97  76 /   0   0   0  50
Georgetown Muni Airport        93  77  92  73 /  10   0  40  80
Hondo Muni Airport             91  75  91  74 /  10  10  30  60
San Marcos Muni Airport        93  76  92  75 /  20  10  60  60
La Grange - Fayette Regional   93  77  91  76 /  20   0  80  70
San Antonio Intl Airport       91  77  91  76 /  20  10  50  60
Stinson Muni Airport           92  77  91  75 /  20  10  50  60

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CJM
LONG TERM....CJM
AVIATION...MMM