603
FXUS64 KEWX 021742
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1242 PM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1242 PM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026

- Hot and mostly rain free conditions through next week.

- Driest air over the region today and Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 135 AM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026

A southward sagging frontal boundary along with outflow propagation
led to isolated to scattered showers and storms yesterday afternoon
and early evening across the region, with the greatest concentration
of heavy rain across portions of southeast Edwards, southern Real,
northern Uvalde, and northeastern Kinney counties. As forecasted, we
did pickup a few isolated pockets of up to 2.5 to 3.5 inches across
this region within a 1 to 2 hour period. Minor flooding near Concan
was reported with a few road closures and a slight bump up in the
flow on the Frio River from around 500 cfs to 1,000 cfs. This front
will continue to sag southward today. With it`s nearby proximity and
lingering moisture, may see a slight chance (10-20%) for showers or
a stray storm from Atascosa/DeWitt counties into our southwestern
most Grande Plain counties later this morning into the early
afternoon.

Much drier air, especially across the mid to upper levels of the
atmosphere, will otherwise filter southward across the region from
today into tonight. The ensemble mean on the HREF has precipitable
water values dropping into the lowest 5 percentile range for this
time of year. That drier air and the return of sunnier skies should
help dew points to mix out into the mid to upper 50s for locations
generally along and north of I-10 during this afternoon. For Monday
afternoon, most locations see dew points slip into the 50s except
across our far southeastern most counties. Given the drier air,
overnight lows should dip slightly, more noticeably across the Hill
Country. The afternoon highs today and Monday are as hot or even a
degree or two hotter as the drier air will be easier and more
efficient to heat up. We`ll raise the high temperatures above the
National Blended Guidance (NBM) but not as high as the MOS guidance
with it`s warm bias so far this summer across our region. With the
drier heat, peak heat indices are not be as high compared to the
past few days.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 135 AM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026

The mid-level pattern over the CONUS through mid to late next week
features troughing from the Ohio Valley towards the Atlantic
coastline while ridging over the Desert Southwest elongates and
stretches across Texas. This will result in a seasonably hot and
rain free pattern across our local region. Daytime highs range in
the mid 90s to near 100 degrees and overnight lows in the mid to
upper 70s. Low-level dew points and cloud cover gradually creep
upwards, especially along and east of the I-35 corridor, with a
slight uptick in the onshore flow coming from the gulf. Late week
into the start of the weekend may see isolated sea breeze activity
across the CRP/HGX CWAs that could approach our far southeastern
most counties, like Lavaca County, elsewhere rain free conditions
should prevail.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026

Dry air is working into the area TAF VCNTYs with dew points dropping
into the low to mid 60s by midday. A few fair weather cumulus and
mid level clouds will remain in the area for the early afternoon,
but a shift to SKC should happen for all areas by late in the day.
Subtle changes in wind direction based on MOS guidance and the area
VAD Wind Profiles and current obs are the only reasons not to have a
one line TAF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              75 102  75  98 /   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  72 102  75  99 /   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     74 101  75  99 /   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            73 100  73  96 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           76 103  78 100 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        72 101  75  98 /   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             73 100  75  98 /   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        73 101  75  99 /   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   75 102  75  98 /   0   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       76 101  77  99 /   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           77 101  77 100 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...62
LONG TERM....62
AVIATION...18