000
FXUS64 KEWX 231839
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
139 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 139 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

An upper level ridge is moving into TX from the west with west-
northwesterly winds aloft. Southeasterly flow has developed in the
low levels bringing warmer, moister air back to the region.
Temperatures are only around five degrees warmer today, but
dewpoints are 15 to 20 degree higher. This moister airmass is
keeping cloudy skies over much of the CWA this afternoon.

The upper trough will slowly move across TX during this period. The
upper flow will turn to westerly and then southwesterly by Wednesday
night. The low level flow will remain from the southeast reinforcing
the deep moisture. Tonight will be mostly cloudy with patchy fog
developing after midnight over the Coastal Plains and I-35 Corridor.
There is some indication of drizzle in the model solutions, but we
will leave it out of the forecast for now. Low temperatures
Wednesday morning will be around ten degrees warmer than this
morning. The low level pattern will continue to be stagnant and
warmer temperatures will move in Wednesday with highs in the 80s and
lower 90s. Little change in the airmass for Wednesday night and lows
Thursday will be about the same as Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 139 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Generally benign weather is expected during the day Thursday as the
first of a pair of strong upper level lows moves through the Four
Corners region. This upper low is forecast to quickly move into the
central Plains by mid-day Friday, with a subsequent increase in
convection developing along and ahead of the corresponding surface
cold front and dryline. Indications are the majority of the forcing
from this system will likely remain to the north of south-central
Texas, but there could be just enough combined forcing from the
upper level system and the surface boundaries to help spark some
shower and thunderstorm activity across northern portions of the
CWA. Storms would have to overcome a weak cap, but if they do so
strong to severe storms will be possible with the forecast CAPE and
shear in place.

This first upper level low will quickly be followed by a second
which will eject into the Plains late Saturday into Sunday. It
appears this low could be slightly stronger which would help improve
precipitation chances for south-central Texas, though there could
also be a stronger cap in place. With this in mind as well as the
inherent less certainty with this system being farther out in time,
PoPs are currently a bit lower, though any storm that does develop
or move into our area could be strong to severe. The Pacific
front/dryline associated with this second system could end up
stalling across or near the area for Monday and Tuesday of next week
which leads to some low-end PoPs in the forecast at this time.

As far as temperatures go, above normal temperatures will prevail
through the period, with the warmest days likely being Saturday and
Monday as some drier air works into the region behind each system.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Strong southerly flow is keeping mainly MVFR ceilings in place across
the region. These ceilings should lift to VFR within the next couple
of hours. Winds will be 10 to 15 kts through the afternoon and early
evening. Ceilings will redevelop tonight earlier than last night. IFR
ceilings are likely in Austin and San Antonio. Slow improvement again
Wednesday late morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              78  67  84  68 /   0   0  10   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  78  66  84  68 /   0   0  10   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     78  66  85  68 /   0   0  10   0
Burnet Muni Airport            77  65  82  68 /   0   0  10   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           87  70  93  73 /   0   0   0  10
Georgetown Muni Airport        78  66  82  68 /   0   0  10   0
Hondo Muni Airport             79  67  86  68 /   0   0  10   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        77  66  84  68 /   0   0  10   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   77  67  83  68 /   0   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       76  67  84  68 /   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           78  68  85  69 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...05
Long-Term...Gale
Aviation...05