827
FXUS64 KEWX 100747
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
247 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 148 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024

A cold front is located just south of the CWA with northeasterly
wind across South Central Texas. Low clouds have begun to develop
across the area with stratus expected over all of the area by
sunrise. This will keep low temperatures elevated in the mid 60s to
the north to the mid and upper 70s in the south. Today will be
cooler with highs in the 80s to low 90s, anywhere from about 6 to 20
degrees cooler than yesterday depending on the location. This front
will slow but continue south during the day today.

Some elevated storms will be possible along and north of the
boundary mainly across the western half of the area today. The most
likely scenario is storms forming near the boundary across the
higher terrain in Mexico and over west Texas, possibly moving into
the area later in the afternoon or evening. Elevated instability may
be enough to generate an isolated severe threat if there are storms
with hail and strong wind the main threats. SPC continues the level
1 of 5 risk for this potential mainly for areas west of San Antonio.

Precipitation chances continue into Saturday as an weak disturbance
rounds the base of the upper low located near the Four Corners
region. Isentropic lift may generate some showers in the west
Saturday morning. Shower and thunderstorm chances increase during
the day, with the best chances for precipitation mainly confined in
the western half of the area. Better forcing does look to be a bit
north of the area, so shower and storm development may just graze
the northern portion of the area in the afternoon. Chances for
severe weather with any activity is low this day. Highs will be
slightly "cooler" mainly in the upper 70s to upper 80s across the
area.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 148 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024

A positively tilted 500mb trough will swing through the Texas
Panhandle late Saturday night/early Sunday morning, and in
conjunction with a 100kt 300mb jet streak over central Texas, south
central Texas should be placed within the right entrance region of
this jet. Large scale lift along with continued easterly surface flow
should lead to widespread showers and storms Saturday night through a
good chunk of the day Sunday. Mother`s Day is looking wet for south
central Texas, so if you have any outdoor plans, plan accordingly
with either an umbrella or a rain coat as you make your way out.
Instability should be quite low, so we are not concerned with severe
weather this weekend. Much cooler temperatures will be the other
story, with highs about 5-15 degrees below normal on Sunday. Most
locations will be in the 70s and 80s with the exception being the
extreme southwestern portion of the area where some spots could touch
the lower 90s. Widespread beneficial rainfall appears increasingly
likely for the Rio Grande Plains and Southern Edwards Plateau where
many locations have missed out on rainfall recently. We should see a
bit of a lull Monday morning before another round of showers and
storms develop beneath a shortwave sliding through the backside of
the longwave troughing to our north.

Tuesday looks like the driest day of the week with increasing
humidity and temperatures. Highs should range from the upper 80s east
and north to the mid to upper 90s west and south. Our next shot at
showers and storms arrives late Wednesday as a shortwave trough
swings through west Texas. The threat for strong to severe storms
appears possible with this system given sufficient instability and
deep layer shear. For now, we will hope for additional rainfall, as
Summer isn`t too far around the corner and the rain machine will
start to shut down sooner rather than later.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1206 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024

Low clouds will develop around 07Z at I-35 terminals and around 11Z
at DRT. Ceilings should mainly stay MVFR, although some IFR
conditions will be possible over the southern Edwards Plateau and
western Hill Country. VFR conditions return in the early to mid
afternoon. Showers or an isolated thunderstorm may develop near DRT
close to sunrise, with additional thunderstorm chances in the
afternoon and evening in the west. East to northeasterly wind will
be seen through the period with some occasional gusts to 25 knots
possible in the afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              83  66  82  67 /  10  10  10  30
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  83  65  83  65 /  10  10  10  30
New Braunfels Muni Airport     85  67  84  67 /  10  10  10  40
Burnet Muni Airport            80  64  77  65 /  20  10  20  40
Del Rio Intl Airport           89  74  85  72 /  50  30  40  60
Georgetown Muni Airport        81  65  80  65 /  10  10  20  30
Hondo Muni Airport             88  68  83  67 /  10  10  20  50
San Marcos Muni Airport        84  65  83  65 /  10  10  10  30
La Grange - Fayette Regional   84  67  83  68 /  10   0  10  20
San Antonio Intl Airport       85  69  83  68 /  10  10  20  40
Stinson Muni Airport           87  70  84  70 /  10  10  20  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...27
Long-Term...MMM
Aviation...27