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000
FXUS62 KFFC 150736
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
336 AM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

...Morning Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 334 AM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Northwesterly mid-level flow remains in place over much of the
Southeast as a 500 mb ridge approaches the region from the west. At
the surface, high pressure remains centered over north/central
Florida, which continues to drive southwesterly low-level winds
across the forecast area. Advection of warm and moist air persists
within this southwesterly flow. A weak shortwave traversing the
upper level flow is moving into east-central Georgia, bringing
scattered cloud coverage and isolated, very light showers to the
area. These should diminish over the next couple of hours as the
disturbance exits the forecast area to the southeast. The warming
trend observed over the weekend continues with increasing 1000-500
mb heights and ongoing warm air advection. Low temperatures this
morning will start out in the mid to upper 50s. Temperatures will
warm quickly under mostly clear skies, and high temperatures this
afternoon are forecast to range from 8-12 degrees above daily
averages, rising into the mid 80s.

Minimum relative humidity values this afternoon are forecast to
range from 30-40 percent along and north of the I-20 corridor, and
25-30 percent to the south. RH in few locations in west-central
Georgia could briefly drop below 25 percent for an hour or two, but
not for long enough to warrant a Fire Danger Statement. That said,
10-hour fuels remain quite dry after a few successive days of breezy
winds and ample sunshine, so the need for a Fire Danger Statement
will need to be assessed if RH values end up trending lower than
forecast. On Tuesday, the ridge will advance into the Southeast,
with its axis becoming centered over Georgia in the afternoon hours.
As the surface high similarly moves to the east, low-level winds
will shift to primarily southerly. Over the course of the day, a low
pressure system will move across the Great Plains to the north of
the ridge pattern. As a cold front extending southward of the low
moves eastward towards the Mississippi River Valley, increased cloud
coverage will begin to spread into north Georgia. In spite of the
increased cloud cover, another day of well above average
temperatures is expected, with morning lows in the mid to upper 50s
and afternoon highs in the low to mid 80s.

King

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 334 AM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

At a glance:

    - Rain chances return Wednesday and again for the weekend

    - Highs in the 80s likely through Saturday

By Wednesday, a mid-level closed low lifting northward across the
Great Plains will support strong surface cyclogenesis -- with
progged MSLP 2 to 3 sigma below average per GEFS and Euro ensembles.
The movement of the aforementioned low(s) will nudge the axes of our
presiding ridge and surface high the remainder of the way off of the
Eastern Seaboard. Concurrently, an attendant cold front will sweep
across the Deep South, and our rain chances look to return Wednesday
through Thursday. By this time, the parent low will likely be making
its way across Michigan, and "best" frontal dynamics will be far
removed from the forecast area. For now, severe potential appears to
be negligible. Rainfall totals are forecast to be minimal,
approximately a tenth of an inch, concentrated north of I-20.

Beyond Thursday, flow becomes quasi-zonal at the mid-levels. The
eastward movement of a closed low rotating across central Canada
will send several pulses of moisture across the Southeast Friday
through Sunday, culminating will a full cold-frontal passage. As a
result, expect slight to low-end chance PoPs across a majority of
the forecast area through the weekend. Like the system on Wednesday,
not forecasting big things as far as total rainfall, and the multi-
day total rainfall through the weekend currently stands at less than
a half of an inch.

Highs will be quite warm through Saturday -- in the 80s areawide --
which is as much as 8-14 degrees above average for late April. AN
isolated 90 degree observation is certainly possible across
southeast central Georgia. Lows will be comparatively warm, in the
upper 50s to 60s. Following the front, expect a return to more
seasonable temperatures: highs in he 60s to lower-70s, and lows in
the upper-40s to 50s.

96

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 123 AM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the period, with only some
passing upper clouds and a cu field around 060 possible in the mid
to late afternoon. Winds will be W to SW through the period,
between 4-7 kts in the early morning hours and increasing to 6-10
kts in the mid morning through the remainder of the daytime.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
High confidence on all elements.

King

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          85  57  83  61 /   0   0   0   0
Atlanta         83  59  82  63 /   0   0   0   0
Blairsville     80  55  79  60 /  10   0   0  10
Cartersville    84  58  83  63 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus        85  58  85  62 /   0   0   0   0
Gainesville     83  59  82  62 /   0   0   0   0
Macon           86  56  84  62 /   0   0   0   0
Rome            84  57  83  60 /   0   0   0  10
Peachtree City  84  56  82  62 /   0   0   0   0
Vidalia         87  59  87  61 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...King
LONG TERM....96
AVIATION...King